The Indian equity market is expected to begin the trading session on Monday, January 5, 2026, on a positive note, taking cues from a strong rally across Asian bourses. This upward momentum follows significant geopolitical events over the weekend, where the United States announced military action against Venezuela and the detention of its President, Nicolas Maduro.
Market Recap and Opening Indicators
Early signals from the Gift Nifty futures pointed towards a firm start for domestic indices. The Gift Nifty was seen trading at 26,542, marking an increase of 76 points or 0.29% from the previous close of Nifty futures. This sets a bullish tone for the session ahead.
This anticipated rise builds on a robust performance from the previous trading day. On Friday, January 2, both benchmark indices closed decisively in the green, supported by widespread buying and growing optimism as the third-quarter earnings season approaches. The Sensex surged 573 points, or 0.67%, to settle at 85,762.01. The Nifty 50 soared to a fresh intraday peak of 26,340 before closing at a record high of 26,328.55, up 182 points or 0.70%.
"Markets extended their gains on Friday and reclaimed record-high levels, marking a strong start to the New Year," noted Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. He added that sentiment was buoyed by positive sectoral trends, especially in auto sales, and a brighter demand outlook for cyclical sectors.
Global Triggers and Commodity Movements
The primary driver for the positive sentiment in Asian markets was the news of the US operation in Venezuela. Over the weekend, former US President Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that American forces had carried out a strike and that President Nicolas Maduro and his wife had been captured and flown out of the country. This development has injected volatility into global commodity markets.
In reaction, Asian markets started the first full week of 2026 on a strong footing. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 2.26%, while South Korea's Kospi gained 2.19% to a record closing high of 4,420.92. On Wall Street, the Friday session saw mixed closes, with the Dow Jones rising 0.66% while the Nasdaq Composite slipped marginally.
Commodity prices reacted to the potential for supply disruptions. Brent crude oil futures edged higher to $60.92 a barrel as traders assessed the impact on Venezuelan oil shipments. Meanwhile, spot gold prices surged over 1% to trade near $4,400 an ounce, continuing its safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical uncertainty. The US dollar also strengthened against major rivals like the euro and the yen.
Outlook for Indian Equities
The immediate focus for the Indian market will be on sustaining the momentum from the previous session while navigating global headlines. The underlying domestic sentiment remains positive, fueled by expectations of strong corporate earnings for the October-December quarter. Analysts suggest that while global events may cause short-term fluctuations, the market's direction will be increasingly dictated by upcoming financial results and sector-specific news.
Investors are advised to monitor developments related to the Venezuela situation for its broader impact on risk appetite and commodity prices, which can influence sectors like oil & gas and metals in India. The performance of index heavyweights and continued buying in cyclical sectors will be crucial for the indices to hold their record levels.
