In a significant development that could reshape narratives around the ongoing conflict, a recent US intelligence assessment has concluded that Ukraine was not responsible for a drone strike on the Kremlin in May last year, an incident Russia claimed was an assassination attempt on President Vladimir Putin.
The Kremlin Incident and Initial Russian Accusations
The dramatic event unfolded on May 3, 2023. Russian state media released footage showing what appeared to be two drones exploding over the Senate building within the Kremlin complex in Moscow. The Russian government swiftly labeled the incident a terrorist act and an attempted assassination of President Putin, who was not present at the time. Moscow directly blamed Ukraine for orchestrating the attack, vowing retaliation.
Ukraine, however, consistently and firmly denied any involvement. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated at the time, "We don't attack Putin or Moscow. We fight on our territory." Many analysts and Western officials initially viewed the incident with skepticism, suggesting it could have been a false flag operation staged by Russia to justify further escalation in its war efforts.
US Intelligence Findings and Implications
According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, which cited sources familiar with the matter, the US intelligence community has now reached a formal judgment on the matter. Their assessment determined that Ukraine did not order or conduct the strike on the Kremlin. The report suggests the operation was likely carried out by one of Ukraine's pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups, potentially acting independently without direct orders from the military or political leadership in Kyiv.
This distinction is crucial in the complex landscape of the war. It separates the official chain of command from the actions of paramilitary or partisan groups operating with a degree of autonomy. The US finding indirectly supports Ukraine's official denial of state-sponsored involvement while acknowledging the diffuse nature of resistance activities against Russian targets.
The intelligence assessment carries substantial weight in international diplomacy. It undermines one of Russia's key propaganda narratives used to justify its “special military operation” and any subsequent attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. For the United States and its NATO allies, this conclusion helps maintain a delicate balance: continuing military support for Ukraine's defence without endorsing direct strikes on Russian sovereign territory, which could risk a catastrophic widening of the conflict.
Broader Context and Ongoing Conflict
This revelation comes amidst a prolonged and brutal war that has seen shifting front lines and increased long-range strikes. The incident itself had caused a major international flare-up, raising fears of a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. The US finding aims to provide clarity and potentially cool tensions based on verified intelligence rather than public accusations.
The response from Moscow to this US assessment has been predictably dismissive. Russian officials have consistently rejected Western intelligence conclusions, often labelling them as biased and politically motivated. The Kremlin is likely to continue maintaining its original accusation against the Ukrainian state.
For Ukraine, the US assessment offers a form of vindication against a serious allegation. However, it also highlights the challenges Kyiv faces in controlling all elements fighting in its name. The war has activated numerous volunteer battalions and resistance networks whose actions are not always centrally coordinated.
The key takeaway is that the United States has found no evidence linking the Ukrainian government to the plot against Putin, a fact that influences Western policy and the flow of military aid. As the war drags on, such intelligence assessments play a critical role in shaping global perception, diplomatic manoeuvres, and the strategic decisions of all involved parties. The truth behind the Kremlin drones may remain contested, but the official US position is now clear.
