A recently disclosed 28-point peace initiative has provided significant clarity on the fundamental question puzzling international observers: What does Russian President Vladimir Putin truly want from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine?
The Peace Proposal and Putin's Response
The peace plan, which underwent revisions after being leaked last week, has faced strong criticism from Ukraine and its Western allies for aligning too closely with Moscow's uncompromising vision for a postwar settlement. Despite this alignment, President Putin has demonstrated limited enthusiasm for signing the document.
During a statement on Thursday, Putin characterized the proposal as merely "a list of questions—each one requiring hard work to resolve." He simultaneously issued one of his most direct territorial demands to date, stating unequivocally: "When Ukrainian troops leave the territories they hold, then the fighting will stop. If they don't, then we'll achieve that through military means."
This position directly contradicts Ukraine's steadfast commitment to never surrender territory to Russia, creating a seemingly insurmountable obstacle to peace negotiations.
Beyond Eastern Ukraine: Russia's Broader Ambitions
The fundamental challenge for Ukraine and its Western supporters lies in Russia's clearly stated objectives, which extend well beyond the conquest of eastern Ukrainian territories. Elements within the 28-point plan have only reinforced this perception.
Analysts interpreting Putin's statements suggest the Russian leader ultimately seeks to deprive Ukraine of its sovereignty, restore Moscow's historical influence over Kyiv, and reverse NATO's expansion into regions Russia considers within its sphere of influence.
Russian economist Konstantin Sonin, a professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, offered a stark assessment: "Anything that prevents a future war is unacceptable for Putin. There is no future for Russia which does not involve continuing to fight for Ukraine until Ukraine is fully integrated into Russia."
The revised peace plan emerged following meetings between senior Trump administration officials and their Ukrainian and European counterparts in Geneva. White House special envoy Steve Witkoff, who collaborated with Kremlin confidant Kirill Dmitriev in drafting the proposal, is scheduled to travel to Moscow for additional negotiations next week.
Historical Justifications and Future Implications
Throughout his quarter-century in power, Putin has consistently articulated a particular historical narrative regarding Ukraine. In essays and speeches, he has described modern Ukraine as an artificial creation of early Soviet leaders while maintaining that Ukrainians and Russians constitute a single people.
This perspective was formalized in a July 2021 essay that became mandatory reading for Russian military personnel and is now widely viewed as ideological preparation for the subsequent invasion. In that document, Putin lamented Ukraine's Western orientation, declaring that "the formation of an ethnically pure Ukrainian state, aggressive toward Russia, is comparable in its consequences to the use of weapons of mass destruction against us."
The current 28-point plan addresses several of Putin's expressed concerns, including provisions that would require Ukraine to adopt rules protecting linguistic minorities and religious tolerance, while compelling Kyiv to reverse restrictions on Russian language use in public spaces.
Prominent Russian ideological figures like Alexander Dugin, often called "Putin's brain" for his influence on Kremlin policy, have amplified this narrative. In a recent Telegram post, Dugin predicted that "Ukraine will be entirely ours within at most two years—quite possibly much sooner. There will no longer be even the slightest trace of sovereignty there."
A draft treaty negotiated between Russian and Ukrainian officials in Istanbul during spring 2022, though never finalized, provides additional insight into potential Russian demands should Western military support for Ukraine diminish. That earlier draft, which Putin has referenced as a negotiating starting point, would have transformed Ukraine into a "permanently neutral state that doesn't participate in military blocs" with severe military restrictions including a cap of 85,000 troops—less than 10% of Ukraine's current military strength.
The modified U.S. initiative proposes a more generous military cap of 800,000 troops without missile restrictions, while including provisions that might appeal to Moscow, such as ceding the entire Donbas region and prohibiting foreign troops on Ukrainian soil.
As Russian forces continue advancing in eastern Ukraine, with armed-forces chief Valery Gerasimov recently claiming control of Kupyansk despite ongoing Ukrainian resistance, Putin appears increasingly confident that military means might achieve what diplomacy has not. Western officials estimate that more than 250,000 Russian soldiers have died in the conflict, though generous military salaries and state-controlled media narratives have limited domestic backlash.
Sergey Radchenko, a Russian historian at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, draws parallels between current negotiations and the post-World War II Yalta Conference, where Stalin sought U.S. agreement to divide Europe into spheres of influence. "If you think of the future of Ukraine as being decided effectively by the United States and Russia, bypassing the Europeans, you can see the outlines of Yalta in that," Radchenko observed.
