The prolonged dry spell affecting southeastern peninsular India is finally coming to an end. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced a significant revival of the Northeast Monsoon, forecasting widespread rainfall that is expected to continue until November 23.
Detailed Rainfall Forecast and Affected Regions
According to the latest IMD bulletin, heavy rainfall is very likely over Tamil Nadu and Kerala until Sunday, November 23. Furthermore, regions including Rayalaseema, Yanam, and coastal Andhra Pradesh are also set to receive heavy showers, with this weather pattern expected to last until Tuesday. The forecast also includes the possibility of thunderstorms and lightning accompanying the rains.
This climatic shift is attributed to the westward movement of a low-pressure area that developed over the Southwest Bay of Bengal on Sunday. This system is pumping moisture into the region, reactivating the Northeast Monsoon. In a significant development, the IMD has indicated that another low-pressure area is likely to form in the Southeast Bay of Bengal around November 22, which could further intensify the rainfall in the subsequent days.
Immediate Impact and Official Advisories
The effects of the reviving monsoon were already felt on Monday, November 18. Districts such as Nagapattinam, Ramanathapuram, Mayiladuthurai, Puducherry, and Cuddalore received moderate to heavy rainfall, with measurements ranging from 40 mm to 120 mm.
In light of the rough sea conditions expected, the weather office has issued a crucial advisory. Fishermen are strongly advised against venturing into the coasts off Kerala, Lakshadweep, and Andhra Pradesh until November 22.
Breaking a Fortnight-Long Dry Spell
The incoming rains are set to break a fortnight-long dry spell that had persisted over the south-eastern peninsula. This dry period followed an extremely wet start to the Northeast Monsoon season, which was triggered by the landfall of Cyclone Montha near Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh on October 28.
Despite the early cyclonic activity, rainfall had been significantly subdued across key regions that typically benefit from the October-December monsoon season. As of November 16, several areas were reporting a rainfall deficit:Puducherry at -24%, Kerala at -26%, and Tamil Nadu at -9%. The anticipated showers this week are expected to help bridge this deficit.
In a contrasting weather development for other parts of the country, the IMD has forecast cold wave conditions to sweep across Central and North India. A severe cold wave is expected in western Madhya Pradesh on Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures likely to drop by up to 5 degrees Celsius below normal in several states.
