Karnataka Confronts Drought Threat as IMD Predicts Below-Normal Monsoon for 2026
Following a surplus-rainfall year in 2025, Karnataka is now on high alert for a potential drought, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issuing a concerning forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon. The state's water security is under serious threat as IMD anticipates below-normal rainfall, exacerbating existing challenges from relentless heat and rapidly depleting reservoirs.
IMD Forecast Highlights Worsening Conditions
IMD's latest long-range forecast for the June to September period indicates that monsoon rainfall is likely to fall short of the seasonal average across India, with an expected 92% of the long period average (LPA), categorizing it as 'below normal'. For Karnataka, the outlook is particularly grim, with seasonal monsoon rainfall projected to be below normal. This forecast comes amid palpable warning signs, including sizzling temperatures that have already strained the state's resources.
Key IMD Probability Forecast for Southwest Monsoon Climatological Divisions (June-Sept 2026):
- Coastal Karnataka: Below Normal (Climatological Normal Rainfall 1971-2020: 3094.0 mm)
- North Interior Karnataka: Below Normal to Near Normal (Climatological Normal Rainfall 1971-2020: 480.8 mm)
- South Interior Karnataka: Below Normal (Climatological Normal Rainfall 1971-2020: 678.5 mm)
Water Crisis Looms for Bengaluru and Beyond
Weather experts have cautioned that a deficit monsoon could severely aggravate the unfolding water crisis in both Bengaluru and other districts of Karnataka. A scientist from the University of Agricultural Sciences explained, "Bengaluru, which relies heavily on a combination of Cauvery river water and groundwater recharged by seasonal rainfall, might witness a repeat of the 2024-25 summer scenario. This will also affect inflows into key reservoirs that support irrigation and power generation." The potential shortfall threatens to deepen reservoir depletion, impacting urban water supply and agricultural needs statewide.
Agriculture Sector Bears the Brunt
The agriculture sector is expected to be hit hardest by the potential monsoon shortfall, especially in the rain-fed regions of North Interior Karnataka. A delayed onset or uneven distribution of rainfall could disrupt sowing cycles for major crops such as paddy, maize, pulses, and oilseeds. Farmers may be forced to either delay sowing or shift to less water-intensive crops, potentially leading to reduced yields and incomes. While rainfall is forecasted to be relatively better in South Interior Karnataka, it is unlikely to offer sufficient respite to offset the overall deficit across the state, leaving agricultural livelihoods in jeopardy.
As Karnataka navigates this precarious situation, stakeholders are urged to prepare for heightened water scarcity and its cascading effects on communities and the economy.
