In a historic shift for the global smartphone industry, Apple is projected to surpass Samsung in worldwide shipments during 2025, marking the first time the iPhone maker has achieved this milestone in 14 years. This significant development signals a major power shift in the competitive smartphone landscape.
Market Share Battle: The Numbers Behind the Shift
According to exclusive data from Counterpoint Research reviewed by CNBC, Apple is expected to ship approximately 243 million iPhone units this year, edging past Samsung's forecast of 235 million units. This shipment performance would give Apple a projected 19.4% share of the global smartphone market, slightly ahead of Samsung's 18.7% share.
The remarkable success for Apple is primarily driven by the outstanding performance of the iPhone 17 series, which launched in September and experienced a robust holiday sales season. Market analysts note that the timing couldn't be better for the tech giant.
Regional Performance and Key Growth Drivers
The iPhone 17 series has demonstrated exceptional performance across key global markets. In the United States, sales during the first four weeks after launch were 12% higher compared to the previous iPhone 16 series, excluding specific models. Meanwhile, in China - another crucial market for Apple - sales of the iPhone 17 series surged 18% higher than its predecessor during the same period.
Senior Analyst Yang Wang from Counterpoint Research provided crucial insights into the underlying factors driving this shift. "Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflexion point," Wang explained. "Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase."
Sustained Dominance and Future Outlook
Counterpoint's projections extend beyond 2025, suggesting that Apple will maintain its top position in the global smartphone market through 2029. Several structural factors support this long-term outlook. Between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, an impressive 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold globally.
"These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will form a sizable demand base, which is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over the coming quarters," Counterpoint noted in their analysis.
Additional tailwinds supporting Apple's growth include:
- Tariff effects that were smaller than expected due to the US-China trade truce
- A weaker US dollar improving affordability in international markets
- Resilient economic outlook boosting consumer confidence
- Strong supply chain management supporting regional growth
Wang emphasized that "With these structural tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025."
Strategic Moves and Product Pipeline
Apple's future strategy appears well-calibrated to maintain its momentum. The company is expected to release the more affordable iPhone 17e next year, along with its much-anticipated entry into the foldable smartphone segment. These moves are strategically designed to capture demand from price-sensitive consumers, particularly in emerging markets.
The research note also highlighted planned upgrades to Apple's virtual assistant Siri and a "major iPhone design revamp" scheduled for 2027. These innovations are likely to support Apple's strong market position in the coming years.
"By expanding its lineup across multiple price tiers, including the growing 'e' series, and potential adjustments to the Pro and Base launch cycles, Apple is strategically positioning itself to capture rising demand from aspirational consumers, particularly in emerging markets," the analysis continued.
The report concluded with a strong endorsement of Apple's ecosystem strategy: "Given an increasing preference for the iOS ecosystem, compatibility between devices and a substantial number of older models within Apple's installed base due for renewal, Apple will retain the lead over other smartphone OEMs through the end of the decade."
It's important to understand that shipments represent devices sent to retail channels by vendors, reflecting demand and sales expectations rather than direct consumer sales. However, this metric remains a crucial indicator of market dynamics and brand performance in the highly competitive smartphone industry.
