A confidential internal review conducted by the CPI (Maoist) politburo presents a starkly grim picture of the outlawed organisation, stating it has been pushed into a "no-recovery window" due to relentless pressure from security forces. The 2024 document, a copy of which has been accessed, concedes that the movement is now focused purely on survival rather than expansion.
A Phase of Survival, Not Expansion
The circular, titled 'CPI (Maoist) politburo circular 1/2024', attributes this critical state to a dual assault: sustained counter-insurgency operations by the state and long-standing failures within the Maoist ranks. It notes a "qualitative change" in the government's approach over the last two decades, which recently culminated in the Surajkund strategic plan and the launch of the decisive 'Kagaar' war in January 2024.
This new phase, the document admits, relies on a three-pronged strategy: encirclement of Maoist zones, saturation through 'carpet security' measures, and a targeted decapitation of the leadership with a sharp focus on central committee and special zonal committee members. It also points to what it calls 'urban repression' spearheaded by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) and intelligence wings.
Sharp Self-Criticism and Operational Failures
In a remarkably self-critical tone, the review argues that the current setback is operational and organisational, not ideological. It lists severe leadership attrition caused by illness, arrests, expulsions, and surrenders. A significant failure highlighted is the poor coordination between the east and central regions, which weakened the central committee's guidance to northern and southern units.
The circular acknowledges that the party and its armed wing, the People's Liberation Guerrilla Army (PLGA), stubbornly clung to "old methods" despite drastic changes in terrain, technology, and surveillance. This failure to adapt left them vulnerable to the government's encirclement and saturation tactics. A major concern flagged is the inability to build a "secret, invincible party," blaming weak political work in villages and poor internal intelligence for allowing informer networks to thrive.
Erosion of Mass Base and Staggering Loss Figures
The document candidly admits to an erosion of its mass base and political drift. It states the party failed to convert large-scale public movements—including the protests against farm laws, CAA-NRC, the Telangana agitation, and various Dalit and tribal struggles—into sustained political consolidation for the Maoist cause.
The politburo provides stark internal loss figures for the period from 2019 to mid-2024. According to the circular:
- 683 Maoist cadres were killed, including 190 women.
- 215 weapons were lost by the outfit.
- It claims 261 police personnel were killed and 516 injured in the same period.
- Maoist actions reportedly seized 25 weapons from security forces.
The review identifies Dandakaranya, Bihar-Jharkhand, and East Bihar North East Jharkhand as the main remaining guerrilla zones. It concedes there is only very limited activity in Telangana and the Andhra-Odisha Border, with the movement largely confined to forest and tribal areas.
The Shift to Pure Survival
The most telling indicator of the group's desperate state is the shift in its stated priority. The document's rallying cry is no longer about expansion or revolution, but simply: "Let us save the party, PLGA, and the revolutionary movement." This reflects an organisation grappling with rising surrenders, desertions, and severe morale issues, now fighting merely to exist.
