In a move that prolongs a tense aviation standoff, Pakistan has once again extended its ban on Indian airlines and aircraft from using its airspace. The new closure is now effective until the early morning of January 24, 2026, as per a fresh Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) issued by Islamabad's aviation authorities.
Reciprocal Bans Enter Ninth Month
India is expected to respond swiftly by extending its own ban on Pakistani carriers for a similar period, pushing the reciprocal airspace closures into their ninth consecutive month. This tit-for-tat action began in April 2025 following a severe deterioration in bilateral relations after the Pahalgam terror attack.
Pakistan initiated the first closure on April 24, 2025, initially for one month. India retaliated on April 30, shutting its skies to Pakistani aircraft. Since then, both nations have been issuing monthly NOTAMs to extend the bans. The latest Pakistani notice was issued a week before the previous one was set to expire on November 24.
Heavy Toll on Indian Aviation Sector
The impact of Pakistan's airspace closure has been profoundly asymmetric, hitting Indian airlines much harder due to their extensive international networks. Approximately 800 weekly flights operated by Indian carriers have been disrupted. These are primarily flights from North India heading to destinations in West Asia, Europe, the United Kingdom, and North America.
Forced to take longer detours, these flights now face increased operational challenges:
- Flight durations extended by 15 minutes to several hours.
- Significantly higher fuel consumption.
- Complex crew scheduling and rostering issues.
- A substantial rise in overall operational costs.
Data from aviation analytics firm Cirium indicates that nearly 400 weekly international departures from North Indian airports like Delhi, Amritsar, Jaipur, and Lucknow are affected. When counting return journeys, the total impacted flights reach around 800 per week.
Airline-Specific Struggles and Financial Fallout
The financial implications are severe. Air India has estimated the closure could cost it around Rs 4,000 crore on an annualised basis. The national carrier, which operates the most west-bound long-haul flights, recently sought government intervention to secure permission from China to use a military airspace zone in Xinjiang to shorten some routes.
Other carriers are also feeling the pinch. IndiGo was forced to suspend its flights from Delhi to Almaty and Tashkent in Central Asia because the alternative routes were beyond the range of its narrow-body aircraft. Airlines like Air India Express, Akasa Air, and SpiceJet, which operate numerous flights to West Asia, are also grappling with increased costs.
This is not the first such crisis. When Pakistan closed its airspace for over four months in 2019, Indian airlines collectively suffered losses estimated at Rs 700 crore.
In stark contrast, the impact on Pakistan's aviation sector is minimal. Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) has a limited international footprint and was only operating about six flights per week over Indian airspace before the ban—specifically routes between Kuala Lumpur and Lahore or Islamabad. Pakistan's aviation industry is also currently struggling, unlike India's rapidly expanding sector.
As both nations dig in their heels, the monthly ritual of NOTAM extensions continues, with no immediate resolution in sight. The primary sufferers remain airlines, their crews, and passengers facing longer, more expensive journeys.
