In a significant shift for agricultural commodities, soybean futures traded in Chicago are on course to record their first yearly increase in three years. This positive movement, observed on Wednesday, is largely attributed to renewed purchasing activity from China following a late-October trade agreement with the United States. However, the broader gains have been limited by plentiful global supplies.
Diverging Paths for Grains
While soybeans find support, the markets for wheat and corn are painting a different picture. Both are headed for a third consecutive annual decline, weighed down by abundant harvests and large stockpiles worldwide. This divergence highlights the complex dynamics influencing global food commodity prices.
The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) has climbed 5.12% over the course of 2025. In contrast, wheat has surrendered 7.4% of its value this year, and corn is down by almost 4%. In early Asian trading hours, specific prices stood at $10.62-1/2 a bushel for soybeans (up 0.02%), $5.10-1/4 a bushel for wheat (down 0.1%), and $4.40-3/4 a bushel for corn (up 0.06%).
China's Role and Trade Commitments
Traders and analysts are closely scrutinizing China's buying patterns and shipment schedules after the recent trade discussions. A key development was the White House announcement that Beijing committed to purchasing 12 million metric tons of American soybeans. Initially set for the end of the year, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has extended this deadline to the end of February.
Adding to the bullish sentiment for soybeans, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed fresh sales. Exporters sold 136,000 tons of U.S. soybeans to China and another 231,000 tons to "unknown destinations." Both transactions are slated for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year, which began on September 1.
Global Supply Pressures on Wheat and Corn
The downward pressure on wheat prices stems from robust production forecasts in key exporting nations. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange predicts a record 2025/26 wheat harvest of 27.8 million tons. Meanwhile, in Russia, the agricultural consultancy Sovecon has increased its wheat export forecast for 2025/26 by 0.4 million tons to a substantial 44.6 million tons.
Market participants are also monitoring geopolitical developments, particularly the Ukraine peace talks. A resolution to the prolonged conflict could further impact wheat and corn markets. Reduced shipping risks and improved access to Ukrainian ports would likely lower export costs, potentially increasing supply and putting additional downward pressure on prices. Ukraine is a major global exporter of both wheat and corn.
Investors are now awaiting the upcoming U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending December 27 for broader economic signals.
