India's exports to the United States staged a powerful comeback in November, defying the weight of significant tariff barriers. New data reveals a robust recovery driven by strategic supply-chain adjustments and pre-holiday inventory building by American buyers.
A Sharp Rebound Against the Odds
According to official commerce ministry data cited by PTI, India's exports to the US grew by a substantial 22.61% in November, reaching $6.98 billion. This impressive recovery is notable because it occurred despite the US imposing 50 per cent tariffs on various Indian goods since August. The trade relationship showed strength on both sides, as imports from the US into India also saw a significant jump of 38.29 per cent to $5.25 billion during the same month.
Analysts from the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) attribute this rebound to a period of adjustment. Ajay Srivastava, Founder of GTRI, explained that the initial uncertainty surrounding the tariff hikes led to a drop in exports between May and September. Buyers had paused orders and drawn down inventories. "Once the higher tariffs became certain, exporters and US buyers began adjusting, absorbing part of the cost, renegotiating prices, and shifting toward less-affected or hard-to-substitute products," Srivastava stated.
Sector-Wide Recovery and Key Performers
This recovery pattern was broad-based, affecting approximately 85 per cent of export categories in November. Major export items clearly illustrated this V-shaped trend:
- Smartphones: As India's top export item, smartphone exports fell sharply from $2.29 billion in May to $884.6 million in September, before recovering strongly to $1.8 billion in November.
- Gems and Jewelry: This sector saw exports drop from $500.2 million to $202.8 million, before bouncing back to $406.2 million.
- Machinery: Exports in this category fell to $516.8 million before recovering to $614.6 million in November.
Some sectors demonstrated inherent resilience. Pharmaceutical exports remained strong, reaching $669.2 million in November. Meanwhile, mineral fuels and oils, which were exempt from the new tariffs, saw relatively minor fluctuations, moving from $291.5 million in May to $274.3 million in November after a brief dip.
Long-Term Outlook and Cautions
Despite the positive November figures, GTRI has issued a note of caution. The think tank suggests that this recovery may be more about adaptation to a tougher trade regime than a permanent improvement. They indicate that businesses are employing short-term strategies to navigate the new environment, and the sustainability of this growth remains to be seen.
The broader picture for the April to November period of the current financial year remains positive. Cumulative exports to the US rose by 11.38 per cent to $59.04 billion, while imports from the US increased by 13.49 per cent to $35.4 billion, indicating continued robust bilateral trade engagement.
