A dramatic surge in India's silver imports during 2025 has highlighted the metal's escalating strategic importance in the global economy. According to a new analysis by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), this spike is fueled by a potent mix of rising industrial consumption, persistent supply shortfalls, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Record Imports Amid Soaring Prices
India solidified its position as the world's largest importer of refined silver last year. The country is estimated to have imported silver worth a staggering $9.2 billion, marking a sharp 44 per cent increase from the previous year. This impressive growth occurred despite a steep climb in prices, indicating robust underlying demand.
The domestic price of silver nearly tripled in rupee terms over the past year. From levels around Rs 80,000–85,000 per kilogram in early 2025, prices skyrocketed to above Rs 2.43 lakh per kg by January 2026.
The Dual Engines of Demand: Safe Haven & Industry
The GTRI report clarifies that the silver rally is not a one-dimensional story. While safe-haven buying during geopolitical uncertainty, including recent developments in Venezuela, has provided support, a deeper structural shift is at play.
More than half of all silver consumed globally now goes into industrial applications. High-tech sectors like electronics, solar power, electric vehicles, defence equipment, and medical technologies are driving this demand. Notably, the solar power industry alone accounts for roughly 15 per cent of global silver consumption.
This transformation is reflected in trade data: global trade in refined silver has expanded nearly eight-fold since the year 2000, signalling its evolution from a traditional precious commodity to a critical industrial input.
Supply Crunch and China's Dominance
On the supply side, the market has struggled to keep up. Persistent annual supply deficits of 200–250 million ounces, coupled with largely stagnant mine output, have tightened global inventories.
The report underscores China's commanding role in the supply chain. China is the world's largest processor of silver ores and concentrates. In contrast, India remains primarily a consumer, importing more than one-fifth of the global refined silver trade in 2024.
This dependence is stark: in 2024, India imported about $6.4 billion worth of refined silver while exporting less than $500 million of silver products. Supply concerns have intensified after China introduced licence-based export curbs on silver, effective January 1, 2026. The new system requires government approval for each export shipment, adding a layer of uncertainty to global supply chains.
GTRI's Call for a Strategic Overhaul
The GTRI argues that India must fundamentally rethink its approach to silver. It should be treated as a strategic industrial and energy-transition metal, not merely a precious commodity for jewellery or investment.
"India should recognise silver as a critical industrial and energy-transition metal, not merely a precious commodity, and integrate it into its minerals and clean-energy strategy," said GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava.
He added that this requires a multi-pronged strategy: securing long-term supply through overseas mining partnerships, boosting domestic refining and recycling capacity to cut dependence on imported finished silver, and diversifying import sources beyond a few trading hubs. "In a fragmenting global order, securing silver is becoming as important as securing energy. India’s policy framework must reflect that shift," Srivastava emphasized.
The report also flagged inconsistencies in global trade data. In 2024, reported global imports of silver ores and concentrates exceeded exports by about $3.6 billion, suggesting under-reported or opaque trade flows, particularly involving a small group of supplier countries.
