In a significant move linked to ongoing trade negotiations, the Indian government has begun closely monitoring the country's crude oil purchases from Russia and the United States on a weekly basis. This directive aims to gather precise data for discussions with Washington, where India's substantial intake of discounted Russian oil has become a major point of contention.
Weekly Data Mandate for Refiners
According to a Reuters report, the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) under the Ministry of Petroleum has instructed oil refiners to submit weekly figures for their crude imports from Russia and the US. This marks the first time such frequent reporting has been requested. Typically, the source of India's crude imports is only captured in monthly customs data and by private analytics firms.
A government official explained the rationale behind the move, stating that having timely and accurate data is crucial. "We want clear and reliable data to share with the United States," the official said. "When the US asks for information, we can provide verified figures instead of them relying on secondary sources."
Russian Oil: A Sticking Point in Trade Talks
The heightened scrutiny comes as New Delhi works to advance a trade agreement with Washington. These negotiations have faced periodic strains, with India's purchases of Russian crude emerging as a key hurdle. Since the start of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, India has become the largest buyer of discounted Russian seaborne oil, drawing criticism from Western nations that have imposed sanctions on Moscow's energy sector.
The trade discussions broke down in late July after India resisted opening its agricultural markets to US products. Furthermore, former US President Donald Trump claimed in October that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had committed to ending Russian crude imports—a claim New Delhi has publicly disputed, emphasizing that Russian supplies are critical for India's energy security.
Imports Expected to Dip Below Key Threshold
While officials stated that refiners have not been formally told to cut Russian oil intake, government and industry sources anticipate that average imports will drop below one million barrels per day in the coming months. This decline is already underway due to tighter Western sanctions.
Data from analytics firm Kpler shows that inflows of Russian crude to India fell to around 1.2 million barrels per day in December 2023. This is the lowest level in three years and represents a steep 40% decline from the peak of roughly two million barrels per day recorded in June.
The Broader Trade Context
The Trump administration had previously raised tariffs on some Indian goods to 50%, citing the trade imbalance and India's oil purchases from Russia. Although several other major economies have reached agreements with the US that eased these initial tariffs, a breakthrough with India remains elusive.
Despite the challenges, dialogue between the two nations has continued and negotiations have restarted. The Indian government's new weekly data-collection effort underscores its attempt to navigate the complex negotiations with concrete, verified information, balancing its strategic energy needs with its ambition for a strengthened trade partnership with the United States.
