India has once again surged ahead of its key emerging market (EM) rivals, clinching the top position in the latest economic rankings. A powerful rebound in exports during November 2025, coupled with robust domestic fundamentals, propelled the country to the forefront, leaving competitors like China and Malaysia behind.
What Drove India to the Top?
The latest edition of Mint's Emerging Market Tracker for November reveals India leading the pack with a composite score of 71. This impressive performance was anchored by a 19.4% year-on-year growth in exports, a figure matched only by the Philippines. This marks a dramatic turnaround from October's 11.4% decline.
Analysts note that a low base effect played a role, as exports had hit a two-year low in November 2024. However, the sheer scale of the recovery is significant. India shipped goods worth $38.1 billion in November, the highest value since May, despite facing steep US tariffs. Key to this success was a strategic diversification of export destinations, with month-on-month shipments to Spain skyrocketing by 63.5% and to China by 35.6%.
India's economic strength was further underscored by its 8.2% GDP growth in the July-September quarter, the highest among the nine tracked EMs. The manufacturing sector also remained a powerhouse, with a Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reading of 56.6, the second-best in the group after Thailand.
Peers and Performance: The EM Landscape
While India soared, other major economies jostled for position. Malaysia secured second place with a score of 62, buoyed by strong currency appreciation and 15.8% export growth. Brazil followed in third with a score of 59.
The most notable shift was the slide of China, a traditional frontrunner, to fourth rank from its second position in October. Its export growth of 5.9% paled in comparison to regional peers, and only marginal gains in its currency and stock market kept it ahead of the lower half of the table.
India's consistency is notable. Between April and November 2025, it failed to secure the top rank only in August and September, demonstrating sustained economic resilience.
Challenges on the Horizon
Despite the celebratory data, several headwinds could challenge India's top position in the coming months. The domestic currency and stock market have been areas of relative weakness.
The Indian rupee depreciated 0.5% month-on-month against the US dollar in November, ranking as the fourth-worst performer among EMs. This trend continued into December, with the currency losing about 1% more. The stock market, despite a 1.2% rise in capitalization in November, underperformed compared to Brazil and Mexico.
This weakness is largely attributed to sustained outflows by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs). In 2025, FPIs were net sellers in Indian equities for eight months, withdrawing a cumulative ₹1.58 trillion until 26 December.
Furthermore, while India's GDP growth is projected to moderate to 7.3% in the second half of 2025-26 from 8.0% in the first half, it is still expected to outpace the 1.3-6.1% growth forecast for other EMs.
The biggest wild card remains exports. The favourable base effect that boosted November numbers will reverse in December. To maintain similar growth rates, India would need to achieve exports worth approximately $45.1 billion in December, an 18% jump from November. While December is historically a strong month, sustaining the aggressive diversification into markets like China, Spain, and the UAE will be critical amid global trade uncertainties.
India's journey at the top of the emerging markets table showcases its domestic economic vigor. However, navigating currency volatility, foreign investor sentiment, and the high bar for export performance will determine if it can retain its pole position in the months to come.
