Indian Stock Market Set for Cautious Gains Amid Key Economic Indicators
The Indian stock market is anticipated to trade in a flat to mildly positive range on Thursday, as optimism surrounding the interim trade framework between India and the United States continues to bolster market sentiment. Stability in the Indian rupee has alleviated currency-related concerns, thereby strengthening confidence among foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). FPIs have maintained their buying streak, offering a substantial liquidity buffer, while consistent domestic institutional investor (DII) participation is helping to mitigate sharp downside risks. With benchmark indices consolidating near record highs, the overall market structure remains constructive, although price movements are likely to remain range-bound in the absence of new catalysts.
January CPI Data Release Under Revised 2024 Base Year
Market participants will closely monitor the release of the January consumer price index (CPI) data, which has been compiled using a revised base year of 2024. This updated series expands coverage to 358 items, including airfares, e-commerce transactions, and OTT subscription rates, compared to the 299 products and services under the previous 2012 series. The new base is expected to more accurately reflect evolving consumption patterns across both rural and urban India, thereby enhancing the precision, relevance, and transparency of inflation estimates.
Precious Metals Under Pressure Following US Job Data
Gold and silver rates are experiencing downward pressure today, driven by better-than-expected US employment data. The COMEX gold rate is currently trading around $5,075 per ounce, marking a decline of 0.50% from the previous close. Similarly, the COMEX silver rate has fallen by 2% to $82.20 per ounce.
Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, commented, "Silver and gold rates today are under pressure due to the better-than-expected US Job data released yesterday. The US government reported faster-than-expected job growth in January, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, surpassing market expectations of 4.40%. This development has fueled US Treasury yields and intensified speculation about potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts."
Indian Rupee Outlook Against US Dollar
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research — Commodity & Currency at LKP Securities, provided insights on the Indian rupee's performance against the US dollar: "The Indian Rupee traded slightly weak at 90.68, down by 0.13 paise, as range-bound movement persists amid mixed global cues. Elevated crude oil prices, particularly with increased imports from Western markets, could widen the import bill and maintain pressure on the currency. Stability in the dollar index and foreign institutional investor (FII) flows will also influence near-term movements. The rupee is expected to trade within a range of 90.25 to 91.20 in the coming sessions."
FII and DII Activity in Previous Session
On Wednesday, FIIs continued as net buyers, whereas DIIs ended as net sellers. FIIs purchased Indian shares worth ₹944 crore, while DIIs sold Indian shares worth ₹125 crore during the session.
Technical Outlook for Nifty 50, Sensex, and Bank Nifty
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, shared his perspective on the Nifty 50 and Sensex: "We believe that on the lower side, 25,900/84,200 would serve as a crucial support zone, while 26,000/84,500 would act as immediate resistance for bullish traders. As long as the market remains within this range, non-directional activity is likely to persist. A successful breakout above 26,000/84,500 could propel the market toward 26,100-26,150/84,800-85,000. Conversely, a drop below 25,900/84,200 could accelerate selling pressure, potentially leading to a retest of 25,800-25,750/84,000-83,700 levels."
Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, discussed the Bank Nifty outlook: "The Bank Nifty index continues to demonstrate strength following a decisive breakout above the falling trendline on the daily chart. The index is sustaining above its 10-day and 20-day moving averages, reinforcing the bullish undertone. Recent consolidation near 59,500–60,000 appears healthy, with prices holding above the breakout zone, indicating acceptance at higher levels. The RSI is hovering around 60, maintaining a bullish bias and reflecting improving momentum. As long as the index stays above 59,500, a buy-on-dips strategy remains favorable, with immediate support near 59,500 and stronger support around 58,000."
Recommended Intraday Stocks from Market Experts
Stock market experts have recommended eight intraday stocks for today's trading session:
- Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking:
- APL Apollo Tubes: Buy at ₹2280, Target ₹2440, Stop Loss ₹2200
- Indus Towers: Buy at ₹467, Target ₹501, Stop Loss ₹450
- Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Anand Rathi:
- Coal India Limited: Buy at ₹418, Target ₹430, Stop Loss ₹410
- HDFC Bank: Buy at ₹928, Target ₹955, Stop Loss ₹910
- NAUKRI: Buy at ₹1170, Target ₹1820, Stop Loss ₹1150
- Shiju Koothupalakkal, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher:
- Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL): Buy at ₹15412, Target ₹15770, Stop Loss ₹15250
- Chambal Fertilisers: Buy at ₹465, Target ₹490, Stop Loss ₹455
- Narayana Hrudayalaya: Buy at ₹1864, Target ₹1970, Stop Loss ₹1825
Disclaimer: This story is intended for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking companies and do not represent Mint. Investors are advised to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
