Indian benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, are poised to kick off the new year 2026 on a historic note, with expectations of a record-high opening in the first trading session on Thursday, January 1. This optimistic start comes despite anticipated thin trading volumes, as most global markets remain shut for the New Year holiday.
Positive Signals from Gift Nifty and Domestic Sentiment
Early indications from the Gift Nifty futures pointed decisively towards a positive opening for Indian equities. The Gift Nifty was trading at a fresh record peak of 26,341, marking a gain of 66 points or 0.25% over the previous close of Nifty futures. This buoyancy follows a strong finish to 2025, where Indian markets ended the final session on a positive note.
On the last day of 2025, the Sensex advanced by 546 points (0.64%) to close at 85,220.60, while the Nifty 50 climbed 191 points (0.74%) to finish at 26,129.60. The rally was supported by healthy buying across segments and short covering. Market sentiment improved on hopes of better corporate earnings growth in the coming year, progress on a potential India-US trade agreement, and the prospect of renewed participation from foreign institutional investors (FIIs).
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, noted that markets concluded 2025 on a strong note with a broad-based recovery. He added that expectations are building for a constructive rebound in 2026, supported by improving demand conditions. Investor focus is likely to remain on corporate earnings and a potential uptick in nominal GDP growth. Sectorally, metal stocks led gains following government announcements on import tariffs for steel products, while the oil & gas sector outperformed on expectations of stable demand and stronger refining margins.
Global Market Context and Key Influences
The positive setup for Indian markets unfolds against a mixed global backdrop. In Asia, key markets like Hong Kong and mainland China wrapped up 2025 with impressive annual gains, driven by an AI-led rally. The Hang Seng Index surged 28% for the year, marking its strongest performance since 2017. The Shanghai Composite rose 18%, its best annual showing since 2019. However, most Asian markets were closed on New Year's Day.
On Wall Street, US indices ended 2025 with strong yearly gains but closed their final session on Wednesday with losses. The S&P 500 fell 0.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.6%, and the Nasdaq composite dropped 0.8%. Trading was thin ahead of the holiday.
Other global developments that could influence market movements include new US sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector, announced by the US Treasury Department. The sanctions target four companies and four oil tankers linked to Venezuelan oil transport, as part of renewed pressure on President Nicolas Maduro's administration.
Commodity Markets and Currency Movements
Commodity markets witnessed dramatic moves in 2025. Gold prices soared roughly 80% over the year, marking the steepest annual rise since 1979. The rally was fueled by US interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and heavy central bank buying. Silver witnessed an even more spectacular surge, rallying 178% in 2025, driven by physical scarcity and booming industrial demand.
In contrast, oil prices recorded their sharpest annual decline since 2020. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell about 20% in 2025, settling at $57.42 a barrel, pressured by increasing global supply and geopolitical risks. The US dollar edged slightly higher but was on track for a yearly decline, influenced by interest rate cuts and policy uncertainties.
As Indian markets reopen, traders will watch these global cues, along with domestic flows and sector-specific developments, to gauge the sustainability of the new year's record-breaking start.
