Gold futures experienced a notable decline at the New York Commodity Exchange (Comex) on Thursday, 20 November 2025, as mixed signals from US employment data created uncertainty in the markets. The precious yellow metal dropped to $4,062 per ounce, reflecting investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision.
US Jobs Report Creates Market Uncertainty
The latest employment data from the US Labour Bureau revealed a complex picture for September 2025. While the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, the economy simultaneously added 119,000 jobs despite ongoing federal government shutdown challenges. This contradictory data created mixed cues for gold investors worldwide.
According to Comex website information, gold futures were trading at $4,075.90 per ounce as of 4:50 p.m. (GMT), marking a 0.51% decrease from the previous closing price of $4,082.80 per ounce. The decline reflects growing market apprehension about the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting and its potential impact on interest rates.
Expert Analysis: Gold Faces Critical Juncture
Market experts indicate that gold is entering a phase of heightened caution. Nikunj Saraf, Chief Executive Officer of Choice Wealth, explained to Mint that uncertainty surrounding the US Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision has created significant market caution. "Uncertainty around the Fed's rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut now falling below 50%, has brought some caution into the market, limiting the immediate upside," Saraf stated.
The commodity market expert emphasized that gold is currently caught between strong long-term support and short-term macroeconomic pressures. This tension has created a challenging environment for investors seeking clear direction in the precious metals market.
Nirpendra Yadav, Senior Commodity Research Analyst at Bonanza, reinforced this cautious outlook. "Gold prices are trading under pressure and remaining in a range as investors sharply pared bets on a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The safe haven demand is also dented due to a rebound in the global equity markets," Yadav told Mint.
Indian Gold Market Follows Global Trend
The impact of global market movements was clearly visible in Indian markets. Data from the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) showed that gold futures for the December 2025 contract declined by 0.61% or ₹752 per 10 grams on Thursday, 20 November 2025.
MCX gold futures were trading at ₹122,299 per 10 grams as of 11:29 p.m. (IST), compared to the previous close of ₹123,051 per 10 grams. This parallel movement with international markets underscores the interconnected nature of global commodity trading.
Despite recent declines, experts maintain a cautiously optimistic long-term view. Nikunj Saraf noted that both Comex and MCX gold rates witnessed substantial rallies in October 2025, and the broader trend remains upward. "Despite the recent swings, the broader trend is still upward. Geopolitical tensions, persistent central-bank buying — expected to touch 900 tonnes in 2025 — and negative real yields are all keeping gold structurally strong," Saraf explained.
Technical Outlook and Key Levels
From a technical perspective, Nirpendra Yadav highlighted several important indicators. Gold prices are currently struggling to advance and are trading between $4,200 to $4,000 with inconsistent volumes. The retreat from recent highs has formed an evening star candle pattern on the daily chart, suggesting potential short-term weakness.
"The MACD has turned negative and RSI has slipped below 70 on the weekly chart, indicating profit booking for the upcoming days. However, prices are sustaining above 50, 100 and 200-SMA and trading in an upwards price channel, signalling limited downside during the profit booking period," Yadav detailed.
For MCX gold, the analyst identified key support at ₹118,000 per 10 grams and resistance at ₹129,000 per 10 grams. The rising selling momentum on weekly charts indicates potential profit booking in the near future.
Nikunj Saraf identified the crucial support zone for Comex gold between $4,000 to $4,050 per ounce. He advised investors to monitor US economic indicators and geopolitical developments closely. "Investors should keep a close eye on US economic numbers and any geopolitical developments. At this stage, buying on dips looks more sensible than chasing fresh highs, especially with festive demand offering a natural cushion," Saraf recommended.
The expert suggested that if current momentum continues, prices could potentially reach ₹125,800 to ₹127,300 on MCX and $4,150+ on COMEX, providing potential upside opportunities for strategic investors.
