The impending expiry of patents for semaglutide-based drugs, used to treat diabetes and obesity, is set to unleash a massive financial windfall for generic pharmaceutical manufacturers. A new industry analysis forecasts that this event will create a revenue opportunity exceeding Rs 50 billion over the coming 12 to 15 months across India, emerging markets, and select regulated regions like Canada and Brazil.
A Multi-Billion Dollar Market Opens Up
According to a detailed report by Systematix Institutional Research, this lucrative opportunity is likely to be distributed among 10 to 15 Indian and global generic players. The revenue breakdown is projected for the financial year 2027 (FY27). Incremental revenues are estimated at Rs 10–20 billion from India's branded formulations market alone. Regulated markets, including Canada and Brazil, are expected to contribute about Rs 45 billion, while emerging markets could add another Rs 5–10 billion.
The launch of generic semaglutide in India, anticipated in the first quarter of FY27, is projected to boost the overall growth rate of the Indian Pharmaceutical Market by 0.5–1%. The most immediate impact for patients will be a sharp reduction in cost. Prices are expected to be 30–50% lower initially compared to current branded versions, with even deeper cuts of 70–75% likely over time as competition intensifies. This dramatic price erosion is predicted to significantly accelerate the adoption of GLP-1 agonist therapies among the vast population of diabetic patients in India.
Key Players and Market Dynamics
Market leadership in the generic GLP-1 segment is expected to remain with a concentrated group of five to ten players. In the Indian context, several companies are already advancing. Alkem Laboratories, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, and Sun Pharma have secured the necessary regulatory approvals from Indian authorities. Other manufacturers are awaiting their clearances. Notably, Zydus Lifesciences is developing a differentiated injectable version of the drug, which could give it a competitive advantage despite its relatively smaller presence in the diabetes segment.
For regulated markets, the combined annual market for semaglutide in Canada and Brazil is valued at nearly $2 billion. Analysts estimate that assuming a 50% price erosion and generics capturing 50% market share, the addressable opportunity in these two countries could be around $500 million. Securing timely regulatory approvals will be critical. The report suggests Dr Reddy’s could be the first Indian company to enter the Canadian market, while Sun Pharma may enjoy a first-mover advantage in Brazil.
Long-Term Growth and Ancillary Benefits
While regulated markets offer a sharp near-term revenue boost, analysts caution that pricing pressure and rising competition may moderate the upside over time. In contrast, emerging markets are expected to provide steadier, longer-term growth with comparatively lower regulatory hurdles. Companies like Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy’s, Alkem, Biocon, and OneSource Specialty Pharma are seen as well-positioned to capitalize, aided by their established diabetes drug portfolios and strategic partnerships.
The ripple effects of this patent cliff will extend beyond just drug manufacturers. As demand for injectable GLP-1 therapies rises, so will the need for delivery devices. Ancillary players such as Shaily Engineering Plastics, which supplies components for pen injectors, are also anticipated to benefit from this burgeoning market segment.
In summary, the patent expiry of semaglutide marks a pivotal moment for the global generic pharmaceutical industry, promising to reshape the diabetes treatment landscape, drive down costs, and create a multi-billion dollar revenue stream for prepared companies over the next 15 months.
