IMF Maintains Critical Stance on India's Economic Data Quality
The International Monetary Fund has maintained its critical assessment of India's official statistics, retaining a 'C' grade for the country's national accounts data in its annual staff report for 2025. Released on Wednesday, the report reaffirmed that methodological weaknesses in India's GDP calculation "somewhat hamper surveillance" of the economy.
Consistent Grading Amid Upcoming Revisions
This marks the second consecutive year that India's GDP statistics have received the second-lowest grade in the IMF's four-tier rating system that ranges from A to D. The timing is particularly significant as it comes just months before the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is scheduled to announce a completely new GDP series with 2022-23 as the base year in February 2026.
The IMF specifically recommended that "regular benchmark revisions of national accounts, prices, and other key statistics should be conducted according to international best practices." This advice comes as India prepares for what officials describe as a major overhaul of its statistical framework.
Broader Context and Historical Perspective
While the current GDP series with 2011-12 as the base year received criticism, the IMF's assessment wasn't entirely negative. The organization gave India an overall 'B' grade for official statistics, with specific B grades awarded for government finances, external sector data, and monetary and financial statistics. India's price or inflation data also secured a B grade.
The report noted significant progress in India's statistical improvements, stating that "the authorities informed about significant progress on the work to update the national accounts and CPI methodologies, with rebased series expected to be launched in February 2026." Indian authorities argued that these ongoing improvements should warrant more favorable ratings in future assessments.
Comparative Performance and Future Outlook
In a comparative context, India's statistical performance appears somewhat favorable when measured against other major economies. China received similar overall grades but faced harsher criticism in specific areas, obtaining C grades for both national accounts and government finance statistics.
The upcoming statistical revisions represent a significant step forward for India's data infrastructure. The new GDP series, scheduled for release at the end of February 2026, is expected to incorporate methodological changes and new data sources, potentially addressing the concerns raised by international institutions like the IMF.
MoSPI is also in the process of updating the Consumer Price Index based on the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey for 2023-24, moving away from the current 2011-12 base. This comprehensive overhaul of India's statistical framework signals the government's commitment to improving data quality and transparency in economic measurement.
