Gold Price Prediction: Resistance Mounts as Technical Structure Weakens
Gold prices are currently encountering significant resistance at elevated levels, with the short-term market structure displaying clear signs of weakness, according to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst for Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities. This analysis comes as gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) trade near ₹1,54,700, having failed to maintain their recent upward trajectory.
Technical Breakdown and Market Dynamics
The price action reveals a distinct rejection near higher price points, forming a lower high on the intraday chart. This pattern indicates that the short-term structure has turned bearish, with any rallies toward the resistance band expected to attract fresh selling pressure. The technical setup further confirms this outlook.
Currently, the price is trading below the short-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) cluster. A critical development is the 8 EMA slipping beneath the 21 EMA, signaling a bearish crossover. The ₹1,55,500 zone aligns precisely with this moving average resistance area, reinforcing it as a key sell-on-rise level. Additionally, gold has moved below the mid-Bollinger band, which confirms the prevailing downside pressure.
If selling intensifies, the lower Bollinger band near ₹1,53,500 to ₹1,53,000 could serve as the next significant support zone. The chart reflects a breakdown from consolidation, followed by sideways movement below resistance. Until the price decisively reclaims ₹1,56,500, the intraday bias remains negative.
Momentum Indicators and Trading Strategy
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 37.9, positioned below the neutral 50 mark. This reading reflects weakening momentum and supports the continuation of the downside move. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, with the histogram showing bearish expansion, indicating sustained selling momentum.
Based on this analysis, the intraday trading view for gold is bearish. The recommended strategy is to sell on rise, with an entry level set at ₹1,55,500. Traders should maintain a strict stop-loss above ₹1,56,500 and target downside levels at ₹1,54,000 and ₹1,53,000. The bias remains bearish below ₹1,55,500, with a reversal only likely above ₹1,56,500.
Key Takeaways for Traders
Gold's intraday technical structure continues to show weakness, supported by the bearish EMA alignment, sub-50 RSI reading, and negative MACD momentum. The resistance near ₹1,55,500 presents a strategic opportunity to initiate short positions. Traders are advised to execute sells near this level, adhere to a strict stop-loss above ₹1,56,500, and aim for downside targets toward ₹1,54,000 and ₹1,53,000 during the trading session.
Summary of Trading Parameters:
- Bias: Sell on Rise
- Resistance: ₹1,55,500
- Targets: ₹1,54,000 / ₹1,53,000
Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes, or personal finance management tips provided by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India or Bharat Horizon.
