In a significant escalation of rhetoric following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, US President Donald Trump has issued stark warnings to three Latin American nations: Colombia, Mexico, and Cuba. The threats, however, are driven by a complex modern cocktail of issues far beyond the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine's assertion of US influence in the hemisphere.
A Multifaceted Storm: Drugs, Ideology, and Immigration
The immediate trigger for President Trump's warnings was the persistent flow of illicit narcotics into the United States. He explicitly threatened action against Colombia and Mexico if they failed to curb this traffic. Regarding Cuba, a key Venezuelan ally, Trump remarked that the island nation "looks like it’s ready to fall" on its own. Experts point to a confluence of factors including ideological shifts, the drug trade, migration pressures, and great-power competition shaping this aggressive posture.
Colombia: From Ally to Adversary?
The United States and Colombia have long shared deep trade and security ties, with Colombia being a major crude oil supplier to the US. However, the relationship has deteriorated sharply since Gustavo Petro became Colombia's first leftist president in 2022. President Petro's administration has resisted US-backed drug eradication policies, expressed interest in joining the BRICS+ bloc, and severed diplomatic relations with Israel.
Tensions flared in January 2025 when Trump's administration threatened repercussions after Colombia initially refused US military aircraft carrying deportees. Recently, Petro condemned the US operation in Venezuela as an "assault on the sovereignty of Latin America" that would trigger a humanitarian crisis. Colombia's role as the world's leading producer of cocaine and coca leaf, accounting for over two-thirds of global supply, remains a central point of US contention.
Mexico: The Border and the Cartels
The 3,145-kilometre US-Mexico border, a perennial flashpoint, is again at the centre of the dispute. The cross-border movement of undocumented immigrants and illicit drugs continues to strain bilateral relations. Mexico is a primary source of fentanyl, a potent synthetic opioid fuelling a deadly overdose crisis in the United States.
President Trump has a history of confrontational policies toward Mexico, from his campaign promise of a border wall to recent threats of drone strikes on Mexican territory to combat drug cartels. In April 2025, his proposal to deploy American troops inside Mexico was firmly rejected by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. The US has also imposed tariffs on Mexico, citing fentanyl trafficking as a key reason.
Cuba: Cold War Legacies and New Dependencies
The US-Cuba relationship, fraught since the Cold War and the Castro revolution, has reverted to deep hostility under Trump. His administration has redesignated Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, reversing the brief diplomatic thaw seen under President Barack Obama.
Cuba's economy is heavily reliant on Venezuelan oil and has seen substantial foreign investment from both China and Russia. With Venezuela's future uncertain, analysts suggest Cuba may deepen its tilt towards Moscow, building on their strengthened military and economic cooperation in recent years. This potential shift aligns with broader US concerns about Russian and Chinese influence in America's traditional sphere.
The current crisis underscores that US policy in Latin America is no longer guided by a single, outdated doctrine. Instead, it is a volatile mix of domestic political priorities on drugs and immigration, ideological opposition to leftist governments, and a strategic imperative to counter rival global powers like Russia and China in its own backyard.
