The price tag for a classic Thanksgiving feast in the United States has become slightly lighter this year. According to the 40th annual survey conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), the average cost to feed ten people the traditional holiday meal is $55.18, marking a 5% decrease from 2024.
However, this welcome dip does not signal a full return to pre-pandemic normalcy. The AFBF report underscores that prices remain substantially higher than they were before the global health crisis, reflecting the persistent economic pressures on US farmers and the broader food supply chain.
Mixed Bag at the Grocery Store
The annual survey, which relies on volunteer shoppers across all 50 states and Puerto Rico, tracks a consistent basket of holiday staples including turkey, stuffing, cranberries, and pumpkin pie mix. This year's findings reveal a tale of two trends: significant savings on the main course are being counterbalanced by sharp increases on the side.
The star of the show, the turkey, saw a dramatic price cut. A 16-pound bird now costs about $21.50, which is 16% cheaper than last year. Consequently, the turkey's share of the total meal cost has plummeted to just 39%, its smallest portion since the year 2000. This decline is attributed to lower consumer demand for turkey outside the holiday season and falling prices for frozen varieties.
Other items that saw price relief include dinner rolls (down 14.6%), cubed stuffing mix (down 9%), and fresh cranberries (down 2.8%).
Unfortunately, the good news ends there for many classic sides. The survey recorded some staggering price hikes:
- Carrot and celery veggie tray: Up by a massive 61%
- Sweet potatoes: Increased by 37%
- Whole milk and whipping cream: Also saw notable increases
The prices for pumpkin pie mix and pie crusts remained unchanged from the previous year.
Why Are Sides Getting So Expensive?
The AFBF analysis points to several factors driving up the cost of produce and dairy. The 37% surge in sweet potato prices is largely a consequence of hurricane damage in the key producing state of North Carolina.
More broadly, fresh vegetables are grappling with a perfect storm of challenges. Labor shortages, rising fuel and fertilizer costs, and weather-related transport delays have all contributed to higher prices at the checkout counter. Because produce items often start from a lower price point, even a small absolute cost increase can result in a large percentage jump year-over-year.
Dairy products are also feeling the pinch from elevated production expenses.
The Bigger Picture for Farmers and Families
For American farmers, this Thanksgiving comes during a difficult period. The AFBF notes that many are struggling with falling crop prices, skyrocketing operational costs for inputs like fuel and fertilizer, and the devastating impact of natural disasters like droughts and floods. With weak export demand, many farms are operating below their breakeven point.
For families, the total cost can vary. When the survey includes popular additions like ham, Russet potatoes, and frozen green beans, the total cost for a meal for ten rises to $77.09. There are also significant regional disparities, with the West being the most expensive region ($61.75) and the South being the most affordable ($50.01) for the classic meal.
In summary, while Americans will find their Thanksgiving turkey more affordable this year, they will be paying a premium for the fresh vegetables and dairy that complete their holiday table, a direct reflection of the ongoing challenges in the agricultural sector.
