In a significant policy shift, the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has announced a complete overhaul of the H-1B work visa selection process. The long-standing random lottery system will be replaced by a new mechanism that prioritizes foreign workers with higher salary offers and greater skills. The Trump administration states this move is designed to protect American wages and jobs.
End of the Random Lottery: A New Wage-Based System
The core of the change lies in abandoning the pure chance-based lottery. The new rule, set to take effect from February 27, 2026, will weight registrations based on the wage levels established by the US Department of Labor (DOL). This means applicants offered higher salaries will have a significantly better chance of selection.
Under the proposed weighted system, an H-1B candidate with a Level IV wage offer (the highest tier) would be entered into the selection pool four times. A Level III beneficiary gets three entries, Level II gets two, and an entry-level Level I candidate gets only one entry. This starkly contrasts with the current system, where all candidates across wage levels have an equal probability of selection, historically around 29.59%.
Implications for Indian Professionals and US Employers
The impact of this rule change will be profound, especially for the Indian diaspora, which is the largest beneficiary of the H-1B program. For the fiscal year ended September 2024, out of 141,000 approved H-1B applications, a substantial 80,449 (57%) were for Indian nationals.
Analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) of the draft rules indicates that the probability of selection for a top-tier (Level IV) applicant could increase by 107%, while it may fall by 48% for an entry-level (Level I) applicant. This creates a clear barrier for recent international graduates from US universities and early-career professionals, while favoring mid-career and senior roles.
US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) spokesperson Matthew Tragesser defended the change, stating the old lottery was "exploited and abused" by some employers to import cheaper foreign labor. The new system, he argued, aligns with congressional intent and strengthens US competitiveness by attracting higher-skilled talent.
Broader Consequences and Industry Reaction
Combined with other proposed measures like a $100,000 entry-fee for new H-1B applications and hikes in mandated wage levels, the overall cost and challenge of recruiting overseas talent will rise sharply for US companies, particularly in the technology sector.
Industry experts predict this could lead to increased offshoring of jobs. Countries like India are expected to benefit through the expansion of Global Capability Centres (GCCs) as companies look to relocate roles that become difficult to fill in the US under the new visa regime.
The final rule, released on a Tuesday night, does not make substantial changes from the draft version published in September 2023. It will be implemented before the E-registration process opens for the next H-1B cap season in March 2026. The annual cap for H-1B visas remains at 85,000, including the master's degree exemption.
