Sharp Decline in Foreign-Born US Workers Coincides with Rising Native Unemployment
A new analysis of official US labor data reveals a concerning trend: the number of foreign-born workers in the United States has declined sharply, while unemployment among US-born workers has simultaneously increased. The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) conducted this comprehensive study using Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) household survey data, painting a picture of a shrinking American labor force with significant economic implications.
Foreign-Born Workforce Experiences Significant Contraction
The NFAP analysis found that between January and February 2026, the number of foreign-born workers in the United States fell by approximately 596,000 individuals. This decline represents part of a larger trend, with the foreign-born workforce decreasing by about one million workers since March 2025, when this population segment had reached its peak.
This contraction contradicts earlier government projections from both the Congressional Budget Office and the Social Security Administration, which had anticipated approximately 1.3 million more foreign-born workers near the beginning of the Trump administration. Instead, BLS data indicates that since January 2025, the foreign-born workforce has actually declined by nearly 600,000 workers.
Overall Labor Force Shrinks for First Time in Years
The report highlights a fundamental shift in US labor dynamics. Historically, the American economy has depended heavily on immigrant contributions for labor-force growth. Between 2014 and 2024, the US labor force expanded by more than 1.3 million workers annually, with immigrants accounting for over half of this increase.
However, this growth pattern has reversed dramatically. According to seasonally adjusted BLS estimates, instead of continuing to expand, the total US labor force has actually contracted by approximately 213,000 workers since January 2025.
Native-Born Workers Not Benefiting from Immigrant Decline
Perhaps most concerning is that the reduction in immigrant workers has not translated into improved employment outcomes for US-born workers. The analysis reveals that the unemployment rate among native-born American workers increased to 4.7% in February 2026, compared to 4.4% in February 2025.
Additionally, the labor-force participation rate for US-born persons aged 16 and above declined from 61.4% to 61.0% during this same period. This suggests that fewer native-born Americans are either working or actively seeking employment.
"Most economic research shows that immigration increases employment opportunities for the US-born, so it would not be surprising if reducing immigration harms American workers," explained labor economist and NFAP senior fellow Mark Regets.
Immigration Restrictions Likely to Prolong Workforce Decline
The report suggests that the decline in the foreign-born workforce will probably continue under current immigration policies, which include tighter restrictions on both legal and illegal immigration. Migration trends are influenced not only by enforcement measures but also by perceptions of a less welcoming environment, which could increase emigration even among legal visa holders.
NFAP cautioned that monthly BLS household survey data should not be treated as precise population estimates. For instance, BLS figures indicate an increase of 2.7 million US-born persons aged over 16 between January 2025 and January 2026, whereas Census estimates suggest growth of roughly half that number.
The report noted that survey adjustments made to match prior Census expectations could lead to overestimates of both US-born and foreign-born populations, potentially masking the actual scale of immigrant labor losses.
Significant Economic Impact Projected
According to NFAP estimates, current immigration policies could have substantial economic consequences. The analysis projects that these policies could reduce the number of workers in the United States by 6.8 million by 2028 and 15.7 million by 2035, potentially slowing economic growth by nearly one-third.
The analysis further projects:
- A loss of approximately 19 million worker-years by 2028
- A loss of 102 million worker-years by 2035
- Cumulative GDP reduction of $1.9 trillion between 2025 and 2028
- Cumulative GDP reduction of $12.1 trillion by 2035
Legal Immigration Also Expected to Decline
NFAP estimated that legal immigration could decline by more than 600,000 during Trump's second term, partly due to lower refugee admissions and restrictions affecting nationals from multiple countries. A December 16 presidential proclamation restricting immigrant and certain temporary visas for nationals of dozens of countries could reduce legal immigration by over 200,000 people in the next three years.
The report indicated these restrictions could affect multiple sectors, including:
- US citizens sponsoring relatives for immigration
- Employers seeking foreign workers to fill specialized positions
- Universities admitting international students
This analysis has sparked discussions across social media platforms. Immigration attorney Greg Siskind commented, "NFAP has released a new analysis of the US labor force showing the US-born unemployment rate has increased while the number of foreign-born workers has declined. That may sound counter-intuitive, but it reflects a long-studied phenomenon of immigrants generating more jobs for US workers than they replace. We've had very high immigration numbers and some of the lowest unemployment numbers ever recorded in recent decades and that's not a surprise."
