The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a seasonal weather outlook indicating that Nagpur and the wider Vidarbha region are set to experience a predominantly dry winter season from January to March 2026. The forecast, released on Thursday, suggests that while January may see rainfall close to average, the period will be marked by sharper and more frequent cold spells.
Seasonal Rainfall Projection: Below Average Nationally
In its detailed forecast for the first quarter of 2026, the IMD projected that winter rainfall across the country is most likely to remain below the long-period average (LPA). Regions including north-west, north-east, and peninsular India are expected to record deficient rainfall during this season. However, parts of Central India, encompassing Nagpur, might witness isolated spells where rainfall could be normal or slightly above normal.
For Nagpur specifically, this translates into a winter characterized by extended dry periods, interrupted only by occasional light showers. These showers are expected primarily in January. The IMD also notes the possibility of thunderstorms accompanied by hail on some days. Historically, Nagpur records an average rainfall of 14.9mm in January across roughly one rainy day.
January 2026: Normal Rain but Uneven Spread and Colder Nights
The monthly outlook for January 2026 is relatively more favourable for precipitation. The IMD expects monthly rainfall over Nagpur to fall within the normal range, aligning with the trend for most of Central India. Despite this, the distribution will be sporadic and uneven, with several days remaining completely dry.
The temperature forecast, however, points to a chillier scenario. The IMD predicts that minimum temperatures in Nagpur are likely to stay below normal during January. This increases the probability of experiencing more cold wave days than is typical for the month. Nagpur's mean maximum temperature for January is 28.9°C, while the mean minimum is 13°C.
Driving Weather Patterns and the Outlook Ahead
Meteorologists attribute the expected conditions to a combination of factors. Clear skies and dry northerly winds are anticipated to intensify the chill, particularly in the latter half of January. Daytime temperatures, in contrast, are expected to be near normal or slightly above normal—a common winter pattern when rainfall is limited.
On a broader climatic scale, the IMD noted that La Niña conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, influencing recent weather patterns. However, climate models suggest a weakening of La Niña in early 2026, with a shift towards ENSO-neutral conditions by the winter's end. Concurrently, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in a neutral state, providing no strong impetus for enhanced winter rainfall over Central India.
This outlook prepares residents and authorities in Nagpur and Vidarbha for a winter that will be drier than usual, demanding preparedness for water management and heightened alertness for health and agricultural impacts due to the predicted cold waves.
