IMD Predicts Above Normal Temperatures and Warmer Nights for India in February
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its monthly weather forecast for February, indicating a continuation of warmer conditions across the country. According to the forecast released on Saturday, both minimum and maximum temperatures are likely to remain above normal throughout the month, signaling an early departure of winter from most regions.
Warmer Nights and Reduced Coldwave Spells
Similar to January, February is expected to experience fewer intense western disturbances, contributing to drier and hotter conditions. The IMD, which considers January and February as winter months in India, predicts that monthly minimum temperatures will be above normal in most parts of the country, with the exception of some areas in south peninsular India.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, explained, "The intermittent cloudy sky conditions will push the minimum temperatures above normal and thus keep nights warmer in February." This pattern is expected to result in coldwave spells lasting two to three days less than usual, providing relief from severe winter chills but also indicating a shift in seasonal norms.
Agricultural and Livestock Implications
The forecasted hot conditions could have significant implications for agriculture and livestock. On the positive side, the availability of warmer weather may advance the rabi harvest by favoring faster crop growth. However, this could come at a cost:
- Early maturity in crops like wheat and barley might lead to a drop in yield.
- Oilseeds and pulses, including chickpea, lentils, and field pea, could show signs of early maturation and reduced seed size.
- Key vegetables such as onion and potatoes may suffer due to hot days, with higher temperatures potentially causing bolting in onion, garlic, and potatoes, resulting in an overall fall in yield and market value.
Additionally, heat stress could affect livestock, potentially impacting milk production. The agro advisory has warned farmers to prepare for these challenges and take necessary precautions to mitigate losses.
Rainfall Trends and Regional Variations
The all-India rainfall during January ended 31 percent below normal, highlighting a dry trend. Northwest India, which experienced a predominantly dry January, saw some recovery in the last week due to rainfall and snowfall, pushing the region's monthly rainfall to "normal" levels. However, with fewer intense western disturbances expected in February, similar to January, the dry conditions are likely to persist, exacerbating the warm weather pattern.
This forecast underscores the need for adaptive measures in agriculture and public health to cope with the changing weather dynamics. As winter makes an early exit, residents across India should brace for warmer days and nights ahead, with potential ripple effects on the economy and daily life.
