With the Uttar Pradesh unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on the verge of appointing a new state president, a critical question dominates political circles: Will the party once again place its faith in a 'tried and tested' OBC leader to lead the charge into the crucial 2027 assembly elections?
A Full Circle for BJP's OBC Strategy
This moment marks a significant full circle for the BJP in India's most populous state. Nine years ago, on April 8, 2016, the party appointed Keshav Prasad Maurya, then a Member of Parliament from Phulpur, as its UP chief. This move, coinciding with the first day of the Hindu month of Chaitra, was a strategic masterstroke aimed at consolidating the non-Yadav OBC vote bank ahead of the 2017 polls.
The strategy yielded historic results. Under Maurya's leadership, the BJP stormed to power with a record 312 seats in the 2017 assembly elections, firmly establishing him as the party's new OBC face. The baton was later passed to another OBC leader, Swatantra Dev Singh, who led the party to another thumping victory in the 2022 state polls.
The 2024 Jolt and the Search for Answers
However, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections delivered a severe shock to the party's OBC calculus. The BJP's tally in Uttar Pradesh plummeted from 62 seats in 2019 to just 33 seats. A significant factor behind this decline was the drift of OBC sub-castes, including a large section of Kurmis who had largely remained loyal till then, towards the Samajwadi Party-led INDIA bloc.
This erosion of a core support base has become a major concern for the party's strategists. A senior BJP leader, speaking to TOI, suggested the loss was more due to "strategic failure and suicidal steps at several levels" rather than the inability of the party's OBC leaders to mobilise support. This introspection is now central to the decision of who will helm the state unit.
The Contenders and the Central Leadership's Surprise Factor
Given the urgent need to rebuild OBC trust, a strong section within the party believes the leadership will opt for an established OBC face. Keshav Maurya is back in the spotlight, having recently been appointed co-in-charge for Bihar polls and an observer for selecting the BJP legislative party leader elsewhere.
Other prominent OBC names in contention include UP ministers Swatantra Dev Singh and Dharmpal Singh, and Union Minister BL Varma. A party insider indicated that crowning a seasoned OBC leader, well-versed in UP's complex political landscape, would allow the party to start its recovery mission from day one.
However, the BJP's central leadership is known for its element of surprise. Some voices do not completely rule out an upper-caste president, with names like former Basti MP Harish Dwivedi and former deputy chief minister Dinesh Sharma also mentioned. Yet, most observers conclude that the balance is tilted heavily in favour of an "established OBC leader."
As the BJP stands at this crossroads, the choice of its next Uttar Pradesh president will send a powerful signal about its strategy to reclaim dominance in the state ahead of the 2027 assembly battle.
