Yesterday's assembly election results have provided a significant boost for the BJP. In West Bengal, where the party invested heavily to unseat Mamata Banerjee, it played high-stakes poker and emerged victorious. The results also highlighted the emergence of Vijay's TVK party as a formidable force in Tamil Nadu, pushing DMK and AIADMK to the margins. A bonus outcome is the potential decline of Dravidianism after nearly 59 years, with TVK's rise and ADMK's diminution.
Key Elements of BJP's Successful Strategy
Integration of Hindutva with Nationalism
BJP has integrated its ideology of mild Hindutva with broader nationalism, allowing ambitious politicians from non-RSS streams to join. In Assam, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and West Bengal, leading politicians are from other parties with non-RSS origins. The playbook indicates next targets: Punjab, then Telangana, with Tamil Nadu and Kerala coming later.
Balancing Short-Term and Long-Term Goals
BJP has managed to juggle short-term political priorities and long-term growth. In Tamil Nadu, it sidelined Annamalai temporarily to gain from anti-incumbency against DMK, but without jettisoning him. The Vijay factor cleared the field of hardcore Dravidian elements, making it easier for Annamalai to build the party without defending Hindi-belt vulnerabilities.
Formidable Election Machinery
BJP demonstrated its formidable election machinery again. In West Bengal, after sliding in 2021 from the 2019 Lok Sabha performance and failing to protect workers from Trinamool violence, this time it stationed central forces to help supporters overcome fear.
Learning from Mistakes
BJP learns from its mistakes. In 2021, targeting Mamata personally and using 'Jai Shri Ram' as a war cry didn't enthuse traditional Bengalis, especially bhadralok. This time, they avoided personal attacks and fielded Suvendu Adhikari against her in Bhabanipur, Kolkata, after he defeated her in 2021 in Nandigram.
Amit Shah's Rising Profile
The West Bengal election puts focus back on Amit Shah as the most important political personality after Modi. There is little doubt he is Modi's logical successor, though Yogi Adityanath is seen as a better Hindutva mascot. The Shah-Yogi combination and its potential for dissonance will be discussed as 2029 general elections approach.
BJP's Broad Tent Appeal
BJP's mix of mild Hindutva, centre-left welfare spending, social justice, and consistent focus on women's welfare makes it the broadest tent political party in India. The only missing element is a direct appeal to minorities, though a half-hearted attempt was made in Kerala with the Christian community without much success.
Religious Demography and Political Strength
In states where religious demography is changing adversely for Hindus—Assam, West Bengal, and Kerala—BJP will likely move centre-stage as the only party addressing their fears. Like Tripura, West Bengal will become core political strength unless the party fails to be inclusive of smaller caste and tribal groups.
Bengal's Saffron Circle
Bengal, home to Hindu icons like Swami Vivekananda and Sri Aurobindo, and founder Syama Prasad Mookerjee, has now come a full saffron circle. The original Sanyasi rebellions began here in the eighteenth century, popularized by Bankim Chattopadhyay's novel Anand Math, where Vande Mataram first appeared.
Decline of Minority-Based Secularism
Minority-based secularism is on its last legs. In Assam and now Bengal, minorityism is no longer a sure-fire formula for winning.
Speculation on Early General Elections
We cannot speculate whether the West Bengal win will make BJP leaders consider bringing forward the 2029 general elections, possibly to coincide with the Uttar Pradesh assembly election next year.
About the Author: R Jagannathan is editorial director of Swarajya.
