Even before the final votes were cast in the latest round of assembly elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Nitin Nabin were in Uttar Pradesh on April 28, mobilizing popular support and attacking the opposition for defeating the Centre's move to amend the women's reservation bill in Parliament.
BJP's Strategic Moves
Four days before the election results, some key party functionaries left West Bengal for Delhi to facilitate the entry of seven AAP MPs, all but one from Punjab, into the BJP. The BJP brass is grudgingly recognized by even rivals for never taking its eyes off the ball. While the maiden win in West Bengal shines brighter than other state victories the BJP has notched up since 2014, and the Assam hat-trick will add to the sense of triumph, its leadership is already preparing for future political battles.
The Bengal win has reinvigorated the BJP's ideological plank, now strengthened by its campaign against infiltrators, and brought into sharp relief the wide traction it enjoys when mixed with welfare offerings and development promises, enhanced by the appeal of Modi.
Eastward Expansion and Insurance Against Losses
The BJP's eastward expansion provides the party an insurance against any unforeseen loss it may suffer in one of its strongholds during the next national elections, as it did in 2024 when its near sweep of Odisha for the first time pushed its tally to 240. Since Bengal has 42 Lok Sabha seats, the party's eastern flank is as strong as its traditional fortresses in north and west, with south, barring Karnataka, remaining the only weak link.
BJP was quick to remind that women's security remains a key plank for the party. Union minister Dharmendra Pradhan said the BJP stands as the "instrument" through which women find voice and pain finds justice, highlighting the win of its candidate Rekha Patra, mother of the RG Kar Medical College rape-murder victim.
Uttar Pradesh: The Crucial Battleground
Uttar Pradesh, due to its sheer size, remains crucial to the BJP's national ambitions. Home to 80 MPs, almost 15% of Lok Sabha seats, UP was instrumental in the BJP's maiden majority in Parliament in 2014 as it delivered 71 seats in its overall tally of 282. And when the SP-led alliance reduced its tally to 33 in 2024 from 62, the BJP fell short of a majority and depended on allies to get a majority.
With Akhilesh Yadav pinning his hopes on further consolidating the social coalition of PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) after denting the BJP in 2024, the governing party is expected to take up measures to rebuild its own support base as part of non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav SCs that had moved away from it in the Lok Sabha polls.
While Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath scores high on law and order, a sore spot for the SP, and is seen as a robust Hindutva face, he has his own share of detractors even within the party, which is expected to take corrective measures to ensure a united face in the run-up to next year's election.
The dominant view within the BJP is that a regional party like the SP is unlikely to be able to blunt its agenda. "The only harm we can suffer in UP is when it is self-inflicted," a party functionary said, expressing confidence that its national leadership will ensure a hat-trick next year.
Punjab: A Priority Border State
Purely in terms of cold statistics, Punjab may not score high on the national index of electoral importance, but the border state has been a priority for the BJP under Modi, who has been assiduously wooing Sikhs, who are in a majority, and Dalits, who are spread among Sikhs and Hindus and have a distinct political identity, following its split with old ally Akali Dal.
The BJP is pulling out all stops to dethrone the AAP in Punjab. While AAP's six Rajya Sabha MPs from the state may not be political heavyweights, their loss does weaken Arvind Kejriwal's party.
Other States in the Poll Cycle
Uttarakhand, where Congress has shown some energy of late, and Goa are two other states which will be part of the next poll cycle. The expected organizational overhaul after Nabin took over as chief in December last year is likely to bring several new faces to the fore as the BJP seeks to balance experience with youth in its rank and file.
