The Indian equity market is gearing up for a cautious start to the trading session on Monday, December 29. Benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open flat or with mild gains, influenced by ongoing geopolitical developments and mixed global signals. The trend from Gift Nifty futures, trading near the 26,100 mark—a rise of 20.50 points or 0.8% from the previous Nifty futures close—hints at this tentative positivity.
Recap of Friday's Market Session
The domestic market concluded the previous week on a negative note. On Friday, December 26, selling pressure persisted in the absence of fresh catalysts, leading to a lower close. The Sensex dropped 367 points, or 0.43%, to settle at 85,041.45. Similarly, the Nifty 50 declined by 100 points, or 0.38%, ending the day at 26,042.30. This decline occurred during a holiday-shortened week characterized by low trading volumes.
Despite the weak finish, both indices managed to eke out marginal weekly gains, breaking their recent losing streaks. For the week ended December 26, the Sensex inched up by 112 points (0.13%), while the Nifty 50 advanced by 0.30%.
Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President of Research at Religare Broking Ltd., commented on the session, noting that markets slipped after two days of range-bound movement. He highlighted that sectoral performance mirrored the benchmark, with IT, financials, and auto sectors being the primary laggards, while broader markets closed flat to marginally positive.
Analyst Predictions for Key Indices
Market experts have provided their technical outlook on the key indices, offering insights into potential support and resistance levels for traders and investors.
Sensex Technical Outlook
The Sensex concluded the week at 85,041, consolidating below its all-time high levels. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, pointed out that the index is finding robust support in the 84,800–84,500 zone, suggesting institutional buying during dips. He stated that a firm close above the 85,500–85,800 resistance band could pave the way for an upward move towards 86,000–86,500 in the coming weeks.
Nifty 50 and Derivatives Data Analysis
The Nifty 50 ended the week at 26,042, maintaining its position within a long-term rising channel. Analysts observe that the index is trading comfortably above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which keeps the medium-term bullish structure intact.
Ponmudi R elaborated on the derivative market sentiment, describing it as cautious yet stable. Open Interest (OI) data shows significant put option accumulation at the 26,000 strike, reinforcing it as a crucial near-term support level. Conversely, call writing is concentrated between the 26,200 and 26,300 strikes, acting as a cap on immediate upside. This setup indicates a range-bound market in the short term. A decisive breakout above 26,300 is needed to signal the next directional move and improve risk appetite.
The overall bias remains positive as long as the Nifty holds above the 26,000–25,900 support zone. A breakout above 26,300 could trigger momentum towards 26,500–26,800, while dips towards 25,800 are likely to attract buying interest.
Bank Nifty Prediction
The banking index, Bank Nifty, closed at 59,011 on Friday. It remains well-supported above its key rising channel and moving averages. According to analysts, sustaining above the 58,800–59,000 zone is crucial for a positive outlook. If it holds, the index could target levels between 60,000 and 60,500, driven by optimism around credit growth and supportive liquidity. A sustained break below 58,000–58,500 would signal short-term weakness, although the broader uptrend is expected to remain unaffected.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed are those of individual analysts and broking firms. Readers are advised to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
