Stock market live updates today: BSE Sensex and Nifty50 are expected to experience a volatile session as crude oil prices climb following renewed tensions between the United States and Iran. Geopolitical developments, along with inflation concerns, commodity price fluctuations, and uncertainty surrounding the monsoon, are likely to keep investors on edge and cap potential gains.
Market Recap: Tuesday's Gains
Indian benchmark indices closed in positive territory on Tuesday, supported by strength in banking and financial shares. The Reserve Bank of India introduced a concessional forex swap window aimed at facilitating overseas borrowing and enhancing foreign currency liquidity, which boosted sentiment in the banking sector. The Nifty gained 0.5% to close at 23,242, while the Midcap100 and Smallcap100 indices advanced 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively. The Bank Nifty surged 2%, and the Indian rupee appreciated against the US dollar.
Crude Oil Prices Recover
Crude prices advanced around 1% on Wednesday after touching a seven-week low in the previous session. The recovery was supported by fresh US military strikes on Iran and data showing a sharp decline in US crude stockpiles, which helped offset recent weakness in the market. Brent crude gained 0.9% to reach $92.29 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude advanced 0.8% to $88.97 a barrel.
Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Asian Markets
Asian equities moved lower on Wednesday, while crude oil prices advanced as rising tensions in the Middle East rattled investor sentiment. Market nervousness increased after the United States carried out strikes on Iran following claims by President Donald Trump that Tehran had brought down a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz. MSCI's broad Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan declined 0.6%. Japan's Nikkei dropped 0.9%, while South Korea's technology-heavy Kospi fell 2% amid a turbulent period for AI-linked stocks.
Expert Views on Geopolitical Risks
Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo in Singapore, noted that geopolitics is being treated as a headline risk, not a macro shock for now. She observed that oil remaining near the $90 mark despite fresh developments involving Iran suggests traders are not yet factoring in a prolonged supply disruption. However, markets could react much more sharply if energy infrastructure, shipping lanes or direct US involvement were to escalate further.
Foreign Investors Return to Indian Bonds
Foreign investors have poured close to Rs 10,000 crore into Indian bonds over the last four trading sessions after the government announced a complete tax exemption on gains from qualifying debt investments and the Reserve Bank of India broadened the range of securities available for investment. The inflows have coincided with a decline in bond yields. This marks a sharp shift from recent months, when overseas investors were steadily reducing their exposure to both Indian debt and equity markets.
Nifty Technical Outlook
According to Bajaj Broking, the Nifty snapped its two-session decline as it traded in a range with positive bias and closed higher by 0.5%. The index formed a bullish hammer-like candle with a small real body and a long lower shadow, highlighting signs of reversal and buying demand emerging from the key support area of 23,000-23,200. Going ahead, the index holding above Monday's low (23,070) will keep the pullback trend intact and open gradual upside towards 23,500-23,550 levels. Key support is at 23,000-23,100.
Bank Nifty Outlook
Bajaj Broking also provided a Bank Nifty outlook, noting that the index formed a Bullish Marubozu candlestick pattern with a similar open and low, signalling strong buying demand near lower levels. The index closed above the 20 and 50-day EMA, indicating a positive bias. It formed a double bottom pattern with identical June and May lows and generated a breakout above trendline resistance. Immediate resistance is at 55,500-55,600 levels; a breakout and close above these levels could signal further upside towards 56,500. Support is around 54,000-53,800.
Market Sentiment and Key Monitorables
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said that going forward, developments in West Asia, crude oil prices, monsoon progress, IPO activity, foreign fund flows and global macroeconomic cues will be key monitorable. Domestic markets are expected to stabilise in the near term amid talks of a truce between Israel and Iran and easing crude oil prices, but the absence of a definitive resolution to geopolitical tensions, coupled with concerns over inflation, commodity price volatility and monsoon trends, may keep investors cautious and limit upside.
US equities closed lower on Tuesday as an early advance in technology shares lost steam. Market sentiment turned cautious after President Trump's comments on Iran. Foreign portfolio investors remained net sellers on Tuesday, offloading shares worth Rs 4,566 crore, while domestic institutional investors purchased equities worth Rs 6,159 crore.
Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.
