As the market enters the final week of December 2025, analysts are eyeing potential breakout moves after a period of subdued trading. Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities, has identified two stocks – Karur Vysya Bank and Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation (GMDC) – as his top picks for the week starting December 29, 2025. His analysis comes alongside a detailed technical outlook on the Nifty and Bank Nifty indices, which have been trapped in remarkably narrow ranges.
Nifty and Bank Nifty: A Phase of Indecision and Low Volatility
The past week on Dalal Street was marked by a holiday-led slowdown, with the Nifty index moving in a remarkably narrow band of just 227 points. This represents its tightest weekly trading range since November 2023. The index managed to touch a high of 26,236 before a mild pullback, closing the week with a modest gain of 0.29%. On the weekly chart, the formation of a Gravestone Doji candle signals clear hesitation at higher levels.
A significant development was the India VIX, the fear gauge, sliding to its lowest-ever weekly close. This extreme compression in volatility often precedes strong directional moves, making the current calm a potentially significant setup for traders. While frontline indices were range-bound, the broader market outperformed. The Nifty Smallcap 100 index staged a robust rally, and thematic pockets like Railways, CPSE, and PSE stocks saw notable rebounds.
For the week ahead, Shah identifies the 26,200–26,250 zone as a crucial resistance band for Nifty. A sustained breakout above 26,250 could trigger a move towards 26,500 and then 26,650. On the downside, strong support is expected in the 25,900–25,850 region.
Bank Nifty Consolidates, Awaiting a Breakout
The Bank Nifty mirrored the indecisive trend, moving within an unusually tight range of 531 points – its narrowest weekly movement since late August 2024. The index formed a small-bodied candle on the weekly chart, reflecting a lack of conviction from both bulls and bears.
This extended consolidation is now flattening key moving averages like the 20-day and 50-day EMA, indicating a loss of near-term momentum. The daily RSI has been moving sideways for 13 consecutive sessions, underscoring the persistent trend fatigue. The immediate trading range is well-defined, with 58,700–58,600 acting as key support and 59,400–59,500 posing as major resistance. A decisive break on either side will be essential to establish the next meaningful trend.
SBI Securities' Top Stock Recommendations for the Week
Amid the broader market consolidation, Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities has pinpointed two stocks showing strong technical breakout setups.
Karur Vysya Bank: The stock has delivered a decisive breakout above the key horizontal resistance zone of ₹255–258 on the daily chart, backed by a sharp spike in volumes. The RSI moving decisively above 60 indicates a shift into a strong bullish momentum zone. Other indicators like the ADX and MACD also confirm positive momentum, with Bollinger Bands beginning to expand, signaling the start of a potential trending move. SBI Securities recommends accumulating the stock in the ₹264-260 zone with a stop loss at ₹254. The short-term target is set at ₹280.
Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation (GMDC): GMDC has broken out of a downward-sloping trendline resistance on the daily chart, accompanied by higher volumes. The RSI is trending above 60, and the +DI has crossed above -DI on the ADX, pointing to emerging bullish strength. The MACD is above the zero line with rising histogram bars, and the stock has closed above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong buying pressure. The recommendation is to accumulate GMDC in the ₹590-584 range with a stop loss at ₹560. The stock is expected to test levels of ₹640 in the short term.
Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market given by experts are their own and do not represent the views of The Times of India. Investors are advised to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
