The year 2025 has proven exceptionally turbulent for India's equity markets, with several former market darlings facing severe downturns. Among the most notable is Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL), the railway infrastructure giant, whose shares have undergone a dramatic correction after a spectacular multi-year bull run.
A Sharp Reversal After Years of Gains
RVNL's journey on the bourses in 2025 stands in stark contrast to its recent history. The stock is poised to record its first annual decline since its market debut in March 2019. After closing its listing year with a 42% gain, the Navratna public sector undertaking delivered positive returns for five consecutive calendar years. This included phenomenal multibagger performances of 133% in 2023 and 166% in 2024. Cumulatively, the stock had soared 447% over three years and an astounding 1,400% over five years.
However, the tide turned this year. With seven out of the last eleven months closing in the red, the RVNL share price has depreciated by 18.22% in 2025. The stock now trades around ₹345.70 per share. More strikingly, from its all-time high of ₹647 hit in July 2024, the shares have shed nearly half their value, a correction close to 50%.
What Drove the Downturn? Weak Orders and Earnings
The primary catalyst for the sell-off has been a noticeable slowdown in fresh order wins, which subsequently translated into weak financial performance. The company's September quarter results underscored the pressure. While revenue managed to grow on a year-on-year basis, both operating and bottom-line metrics contracted.
Net profit fell 20% YoY to ₹230.52 crore, pressured by rising expenses. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) declined to ₹217 crore from ₹256 crore in the same quarter last year. Consequently, EBITDA margins contracted by 100 basis points to 4%.
Glimmers of Hope: Recent Triggers for Recovery
Despite the prolonged pressure, sentiment has shown signs of improvement in recent sessions. A key boost came from the government's announcement on rationalising passenger fares, a move aimed at balancing operational costs without overburdening passengers. This sector-positive news helped the stock rally approximately 15% over the last four trading sessions.
Adding to the optimism was a recent order win. Last week, RVNL secured a Letter of Award from the Northeastern Railway for constructing the substructure of Important Bridge No. 50 over the River Gandak. The project involves a double D-type well foundation for a double line, adhering to RDSO's 25-tonne axle load standards.
Furthermore, market participants are building expectations around the upcoming Union Budget, which is historically a significant event for infrastructure and PSU stocks. Anticipation of new policy measures, capital expenditure allocations, and project announcements is providing support to the counter.
Investors are advised to consult with certified financial experts before making any investment decisions regarding RVNL or other stocks.
