Gold and silver are poised to maintain their current levels in the week ahead, with traders awaiting cues from the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Analysts highlight that despite subdued trading volumes due to a light data calendar, the underlying strength in bullion is likely to persist, supported by global monetary policy expectations.
Fed Minutes and Economic Data in Focus
Market participants are set to closely scrutinize the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled for release on Tuesday. Key US indicators like pending home sales data will also be tracked to gauge the future path of interest rates and their subsequent impact on precious metal prices. The direction of US monetary policy remains a primary driver for gold and silver markets globally.
Analysts Project Sustained Strength into 2026
Experts believe the bullish momentum for gold and silver will extend into 2026, fueled by anticipated global rate cuts, persistent safe-haven demand, and robust industrial consumption, particularly for silver. However, they warn that the pace of appreciation may slow down following an exceptional rally witnessed in 2025.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures soared by Rs 5,677, or 4.23 percent, last week, achieving a historic peak of Rs 1,40,465 per 10 grams on Friday. In international markets, Comex gold climbed $165.4 to touch a record high of $4,584 per ounce.
"After a staggering rally in 2025, we do not expect similar returns in 2026. But the current momentum may push prices towards $5,000–5,200 globally and Rs 1,50,000–1,55,000 on the MCX in 2026," said Pranav Mer, Vice-President, EBG, Commodity and Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd.
Mer identified monetary policy easing, de-dollarisation trends, and global trade tensions as key drivers. He added that developments including Bank of Japan rate hikes, escalating trade restrictions, and economic activity in the US and China will be closely monitored.
Silver Shines on Industrial and Investment Demand
Silver mirrored gold's rally, posting significant gains driven by strong industrial and investment demand. On the MCX, silver futures skyrocketed by Rs 31,348, or 15.04 percent, hitting an all-time high of Rs 2,42,000 per kg. Comex silver prices gained $9.71 to reach a lifetime peak of $79.70 per ounce.
"Silver is supported by strong industrial demand from new-age sectors, relatively cheaper pricing compared to gold, and a sharp rally in industrial metals following tariff announcements earlier this year," Mer explained.
Analysts foresee silver prices potentially advancing towards Rs 2,75,000 per kg on the MCX and $80–85 per ounce globally, citing supply constraints and sustained demand. A significant factor is China's announcement of export restrictions on silver, effective from January 1, 2026, which will require licenses for shipments. This move, expected to last through 2027, could disrupt global supply chains and underpin prices.
Broader Drivers and Safe-Haven Appeal
Prathamesh Mallya, DVP–Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, noted that easing interest rates by the US Fed and expectations of further cuts have enhanced the attractiveness of gold and silver. Safe-haven flows amid uncertainties from US tariff policies and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have also provided support. Mallya suggested gold could aim for Rs 1,60,000 per 10 grams on domestic exchanges in the first half of 2026.
While central bank gold purchases have moderated from the highs of the past three years, buying activity remains steady due to portfolio diversification needs and currency concerns, especially with further rate cuts on the horizon.
In summary, the precious metals complex is expected to stay firm in 2026, with its trajectory heavily influenced by interest rate expectations, geopolitical and trade tensions, and unwavering industrial demand.
