India's domestic automobile sector is gearing up to report robust wholesale numbers for November, with industry analysts projecting double-digit growth across all major segments. The positive momentum comes as demand shows significant improvement following GST rationalization, particularly in the entry-level vehicle category encompassing both two-wheelers and passenger vehicles.
Segment-Wise Growth Projections
Financial services firm Motilal Oswal has released detailed forecasts indicating substantial growth across the automotive landscape. The brokerage expects two-wheelers to post 11% year-on-year growth, while passenger vehicles are projected to grow by 11%. The commercial vehicle segment is anticipated to show 13% growth, and tractors are expected to register 12% volume increase compared to the same period last year.
Passenger Vehicle Leaders Emerge
Among passenger vehicle manufacturers, Mahindra & Mahindra is positioned to lead the growth charge with an expected 12.7% YoY jump in sales, reaching approximately 126,697 units. Close behind, Maruti Suzuki is projected to report a 9.8% YoY increase to 199,312 units, while Hyundai Motor India is anticipated to see wholesale growth of 5.5% YoY to 64,650 units.
The compact SUV segment appears to be driving significant revival, with Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles expected to post double-digit growth in November. According to Motilal Oswal analysts, this growth trajectory is being fueled by strong marriage season demand and a noticeable revival in small car sales, supported by a low base effect and attractive discounts, along with benefits stemming from recent GST rate cuts.
Two-Wheeler Momentum Continues
Similar to passenger vehicles, the two-wheeler segment has maintained its demand strength even in the post-festive period. Key drivers include positive rural sentiment and sustained marriage season demand, complemented by the beneficial impact of GST rate reductions.
Within the two-wheeler original equipment manufacturers, Eicher Motors and TVS Motor are expected to continue outperforming their competitors. The brokerage projects Royal Enfield's dispatches to surge by 24.3% YoY to 102,271 units, while TVS is seen rising 11.3% YoY to 446,466 units.
Commercial Vehicles Show Mixed Trends
The commercial vehicle segment presents a varied picture according to industry observations. On the positive side, Motilal Oswal notes a healthy revival in the light commercial vehicle segment, likely supported by improving consumption patterns across the country.
However, demand for medium and heavy commercial vehicle trucks continues to remain subdued. Despite this uneven performance, the overall commercial vehicle segment is expected to post 13% YoY growth in November dispatches, largely attributable to a low base from the previous year.
Market Outlook and Brokerage Preferences
With the recovery in demand gaining traction, the brokerage anticipates that discounts will gradually reduce following the festive season. Among its preferred stock picks, Maruti Suzuki remains the top choice among auto OEMs, as the firm believes new model launches and current export momentum are likely to drive healthy earnings growth.
The brokerage also favors Mahindra & Mahindra, given the positive uptrend in tractors and robust growth in utility vehicles. In the two-wheeler segment, it maintains a positive outlook on TVS Motor, while its top auto ancillary selections include Endurance Technologies, SAMIL, and Happy Forgings.
The tractor segment is expected to maintain stable demand momentum moving forward, with Motilal Oswal projecting a healthy 12% volume growth for November, indicating sustained agricultural and rural economic strength.
