For the first time in decades, a significant trend in the American workforce has reversed direction. After nearly 80 years of steady progress, where women consistently gained ground in employment, recent data indicates they are now stepping back. This shift raises critical questions about the economy, societal changes, and the lasting impact of the pandemic.
A Historic Trend Hits a Turning Point
Since 1948, when the US Bureau of Labour Statistics began tracking gender-specific data, the story has been one of female advancement. Back then, only 32% of women were in the labour force compared to 87% of men. The gap closed dramatically over the decades, reaching a near-record low difference of just 10.1 percentage points by early 2025. The recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic even saw women bouncing back faster than men.
However, the momentum has stalled. From a post-COVID peak of 57.7% in August 2024, the female labour force participation rate has dropped to 56.9%. This decline, representing over 600,000 women exiting the workforce, marks the most significant increase in the male-female participation gap since the 1950s, even as men's participation remains steady.
Exploring the Reasons Behind the Exodus
What is driving this unexpected reversal? The immediate assumption might point to economic troubles in female-dominated sectors. Yet, data from the Census Bureau contradicts this. The industries shedding the most jobs in the past year—retail, manufacturing, and transportation—are either balanced or male-skewing. Conversely, sectors like education and healthcare, where women are predominant, have continued to add workers.
This leads to theories of a social or cultural shift. The rise of "tradwives" on platforms like TikTok, advocating for traditional gender roles, suggests a potential cultural movement. Another plausible explanation is the soaring cost of childcare, which could be pushing mothers, especially those with young children, out of employment.
The Baby Boom Hypothesis and Remote Work's Role
Digging deeper into the data reveals a compelling demographic clue. While the participation rate for "prime-age" women (25-54 years) with children under five has fallen, the absolute number of such working mothers has actually increased slightly, from 7.8 million to 7.9 million. The decline in the rate, therefore, seems linked to a rise in the total number of young mothers.
This aligns with a post-pandemic demographic shift. Many couples delayed weddings during COVID-19, leading to a surge in marriages in 2022. Following the typical pattern of having children a year or two later, America appears to be experiencing a mini baby boom. This influx of new mothers temporarily pulls women from the workforce for maternity leave.
The long-term effect of this trend, however, hinges on workplace flexibility. Research by Misty Heggeness of the University of Kansas found that women who were pregnant at the start of the pandemic and benefited from remote work arrangements showed higher subsequent participation rates. As return-to-office mandates become more common, it remains to be seen if the new cohort of mothers will return to work at the same rates. The personal experience of The Economist's correspondent, who married in 2022, had a child, and returned to work, offers a note of optimism.
This evolving situation presents a complex picture, blending demographics, workplace policies, and social trends, which will shape the American labour market for years to come.
