US Universities Brace for Sharp Decline in International Master's Students
American universities are preparing for a challenging period in postgraduate education. New projections indicate a significant slowdown in international master's enrollments for the 2025-26 academic year. This decline follows several years where overseas students played a crucial role in sustaining growth in US master's programs, even as domestic participation weakened.
Projected Enrollment Drop Signals Major Shift
According to recent market analysis from higher education research firm Validated Insights, US institutions now expect to enroll approximately 64,000 fewer international master's students than earlier projections suggested. Previous forecasts had placed international master's enrollments near 660,000 students, but changing policy conditions and falling demand have altered those expectations.
The findings highlight how dependent US master's programs have become on international students over the past decade. Analysis shows that between 2018-19 and 2023-24, domestic master's enrollment declined by 0.5%, while international enrollments grew by more than 6%. This divergence still resulted in modest overall growth of 0.4% across US master's programs.
Growth accelerated further after the pandemic. Since 2021, international master's enrollments increased by over 11%, helping universities maintain course viability and financial stability. The projected decline for 2025-26 therefore represents a significant break from recent trends.
Application Volumes Already Showing Strain
The outlook is based not only on forecasts but also on signals from institutions themselves. The Validated Insights study, which draws on data from multiple sector bodies, indicates that nearly half of US institutions expect international graduate application volumes to decline this year.
This builds on earlier evidence from the Institute of International Education. In its institutional surveys, 42% of US institutions reported a fall in international graduate applications last year, suggesting the downturn has been developing gradually rather than emerging suddenly.
Further confirmation comes from NAFSA: Association of International Educators, which reported that new international master's enrollments fell by 19% year-on-year in fall 2025, one of the steepest non-pandemic declines recorded.
Student Interest in US Weakening Significantly
Demand-side indicators also point to a loss of momentum. Data from global student search platform Studyportals shows that interest in studying in the US has dropped sharply in 2025. Based on prospective student search behavior, interest in US programs fell by about 50% between January and April 2025, indicating many students are reconsidering their study destinations.
Education analysts link this shift to growing uncertainty around post-study work options and longer-term immigration pathways, especially when compared with countries offering clearer and more predictable policies.
STEM Master's Programs Face Highest Risk
The impact of declining international enrollments is expected to vary significantly by discipline. The Validated Insights report notes that international students are heavily over-represented in STEM master's programs, making these courses particularly vulnerable.
International students account for roughly 80% of software engineering graduates and 77% of computer science graduates at the master's level. In contrast, programs in education and healthcare tend to have much lower proportions of international students.
Because of this concentration, the report warns that several high-demand STEM master's programs are now structurally dependent on international enrollments, increasing the risk of course consolidation or closure if the downward trend continues.
Wider Economic and Workforce Implications
The implications extend beyond university campuses. According to NAFSA's economic impact analysis, sustained declines in international student numbers could result in approximately $7 billion in lost economic activity, affecting local economies, employment, and research output.
Validated Insights notes that reduced international enrollments may also intensify talent shortages in technology-driven fields, including artificial intelligence, data science, cyber security, and engineering. These are areas where domestic graduate supply already struggles to meet labor market demand.
Over time, analysts warn that weaker enrollments could slow innovation, increase hiring challenges for US employers, and reduce the country's competitiveness in emerging technologies.
Immigration Policy Concerns Influence Student Choices
Survey data suggests that immigration and post-study work policies are shaping student decisions. In a recent NAFSA survey of current international students, more than half said they would not have chosen the US if access to the H-1B visa were primarily determined by wage thresholds.
Similarly, a majority indicated that the absence of Optional Practical Training would have deterred them from enrolling, while many master's students planning to stay in the US said they would reconsider if post-study work options were removed.
With recent changes to skilled worker visa rules and ongoing debate around OPT, sector analysts caution that the projected decline in international master's enrollments may persist rather than reverse quickly.
As US universities plan for the coming years, the data suggests that reliance on international students to sustain master's programs can no longer be assumed, particularly in high-cost, high-demand STEM fields.
