In a significant shift of tone, a major US defense report has stated clearly that the United States mainland is now increasingly exposed to direct threats due to China's rapid and historic military modernization. The Pentagon's 2025 annual assessment on China's military power moves beyond implications to state plainly that Beijing's capabilities are designed to pressure American decision-making by targeting the homeland itself.
A Multi-Domain Threat to the American Homeland
The report, titled Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China, argues that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is no longer focused solely on regional deterrence. It is now measuring itself against the "strong enemy," a clear reference to the United States. The core of the new vulnerability is that Washington must now consider if it can intervene in a distant conflict, like one over Taiwan, while simultaneously absorbing disruption at home.
The Pentagon's central point is that Beijing is constructing multiple, integrated ways to shape US choices during a crisis. This shifts the fundamental question from "Can the US win near Taiwan?" to "Can the US sustain domestic stability, protect critical infrastructure, and maintain space-based capabilities while intervening?" The threat is deliberately framed across all domains: cyber, space, conventional strikes, and nuclear.
The 2027 Benchmark and Taiwan as the Pacing Scenario
The assessment states that the PLA is making "steady progress" toward its 2027 goals. These goals explicitly include achieving "strategic decisive victory" over Taiwan and building "strategic counterbalance" against the US. The report translates this without ambiguity: "China expects to be able to fight and win a war on Taiwan by the end of 2027."
To reach this point, China is refining multiple military options, with an amphibious invasion described as the "most dangerous" possibility. Others include a joint firepower strike campaign and a maritime blockade. The PLA's 2024 "JOINT SWORD" exercises were not symbolic but realistic stress tests, practicing the encirclement of the island and strikes on key targets.
Critically, planning for Taiwan is inseparable from countering US intervention. The PLA's growing missile forces can now target areas 1,500 to 2,000 nautical miles from China's coast, posing a serious risk to US operations across the western Pacific. Chinese forces regularly train against professional "blue forces" that replicate American tactics and equipment.
Cyber, Space, and Nuclear: The Tools of Pressure
The report identifies cyber operations as a primary lever to reach the US homeland. It calls China the most persistent cyber threat to US networks in 2024. Intrusions linked to campaigns like "Volt Typhoon" have burrowed into critical infrastructure, not just for spying but to demonstrate disruption capabilities during a crisis. Another campaign, "Salt Typhoon," targeted US telecom providers, highlighting vulnerabilities.
In space, China's surveillance satellite fleet has more than tripled since 2018, exceeding 359 systems by early 2024. This network dramatically improves tracking of US forces. China is also developing anti-satellite missiles, dual-use satellites with robotic arms, and ground-based lasers to degrade an adversary's space access, aiming to break the "kill chain" of US military operations.
Overlaying this is a rapidly expanding nuclear force. While China's warhead stockpile was in the low 600s through 2024, it is on track to exceed 1,000 by 2030. New silo fields, mobile missiles, and interest in lower-yield weapons suggest a shift toward a more ready and flexible nuclear posture, complicating escalation dynamics.
The Doctrine of 'National Total War'
The most striking conceptual shift highlighted is China's embrace of "national total war." This doctrine views future conflict not as a standalone military battle but as a clash between entire national systems. Political control, economic strength, civilian infrastructure, information, and military power are all part of the same integrated battlefield.
This thinking is linked to President Xi Jinping's goal of "national rejuvenation" by 2049. Defense spending has nearly doubled since he took power. Reforms in civil-military integration ensure commercial sectors and local governments can be mobilized rapidly in war. Chinese planners have studied the Ukraine conflict for lessons on industrial capacity and sanctions resistance.
The Pentagon's report concludes that the era where the US homeland could be considered a secure sanctuary in a great-power conflict is ending. China is building an interconnected system of pressure points—cyber, space, conventional, and nuclear—designed to raise the cost and uncertainty of American intervention. The competition, as Beijing's own doctrine states, is now a contest between entire societies, where geographical distance alone no longer guarantees safety.
