In a significant geopolitical and economic move, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is developing an ambitious, long-term strategy to exert control over Venezuela's vast oil industry. According to sources familiar with the discussions, this sweeping initiative aims to secure American dominance over Venezuelan oil reserves for years to come, with President Trump personally believing it could help drive down global oil prices to his preferred target of $50 per barrel.
The Core of the Plan: Controlling PdVSA
The plan under serious consideration envisions the United States gaining substantial influence over Venezuela's state-owned oil giant, Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PdVSA). This would involve the U.S. acquiring and marketing the bulk of the company's oil production. The strategy was set in motion shortly after U.S. forces captured former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, with Trump's team quickly engaging the new interim government.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt framed the move as a benefit for multiple parties, stating, "The American energy industry and most importantly the American people and the Venezuelan people are going to hugely benefit from the president’s control of Venezuela’s oil, which was previously used to fund Maduro’s illegitimate narcoterrorism regime."
PdVSA, in a social media statement, confirmed negotiations with the U.S. for crude oil sales but described them as a commercial transaction. The company and Venezuela's Information Ministry did not respond to further requests for comment.
Geopolitical and Economic Objectives
This bold plan serves multiple strategic goals for the Trump administration:
- Lowering Oil Prices: Trump has repeatedly told aides that accessing Venezuela's oil could help achieve his political goal of reducing prices to $50 per barrel, potentially easing costs for U.S. consumers.
- Countering Russia and China: A primary aim is to box out geopolitical rivals Russia and China, who have significant interests in Venezuela. China is currently the largest importer of Venezuelan crude.
- Energy Dominance: By controlling PdVSA's output, the U.S. would effectively steward most of the Western Hemisphere's oil reserves, amplifying its "drill, baby, drill" mantra on a global scale.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced at a Goldman Sachs conference that the U.S. plans to sell blockaded Venezuelan oil "indefinitely," starting with stored barrels and moving to ongoing production. The proceeds will initially go to U.S.-controlled accounts before being distributed to Venezuela's interim authorities.
Challenges and Industry Skepticism
Despite the administration's confidence, the plan faces substantial hurdles. The Venezuelan oil industry is in a dilapidated state after years of underinvestment and neglect. Reviving production would require tens of billions in investment from U.S. companies, which may be reluctant amid low global prices.
Furthermore, Trump's push for lower prices conflicts with the interests of the U.S. shale industry, a key political backer. Many American drillers see $50 per barrel as an unprofitable threshold. Analysts note that U.S. oil output increased only slightly in late 2024, driven by operational efficiencies, not policy changes.
"Investors don’t care about energy dominance. They care about energy dividends," remarked Clay Seigle of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, highlighting the tension between political ambition and market reality.
Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners interpreted the move as a shift in strategy: "The previous president looked to tighten alliances... And the current president seems to be looking at trying to make America bigger."
The administration is actively discussing execution with oil executives from companies like Chevron and Exxon, and is considering selling Venezuelan crude to major traders like Mercuria, Vitol, and Trafigura. With pivotal midterm elections approaching and voter anxiety over affordability high, the success of this high-stakes plan carries significant political weight for President Trump.
