A rigorous analysis of US employment data has uncovered a startling economic consequence of intensified federal immigration enforcement: a sharp, sustained decline in the workforce, with California suffering the most severe losses. The findings, led by Professor Edward Flores, suggest that policy actions are directly triggering a quiet economic crisis.
The Numbers Tell a Story of Economic Retreat
Edward Flores, an associate professor of sociology and faculty director of the UC Merced Labor Center, adopted a methodical approach. He analysed US Census Bureau employment data from late May and early June 2025. The pattern he discovered was alarming. Reported private-sector employment in California plunged by 3.1% in a matter of weeks. Professor Flores noted that in modern economic history, such a rapid contraction had only one precedent: the economic lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic.
This was not a temporary blip. The professor continued his monthly analysis, tracking labour participation as immigration raids spread. By early July, the situation had deteriorated further. California's private-sector workforce had shrunk by a staggering 4.9%, representing a loss of approximately 742,500 workers. The trend only paused in October when a federal government shutdown halted census data collection.
A Direct Link Between Enforcement and Employment
The data provided compelling evidence of a cause-and-effect relationship. In August, a temporary intervention by a US district judge halted roving immigration patrols that targeted individuals based on ethnicity, language, or occupation. Following this ruling, employment figures stabilised slightly. This pause in the decline strongly indicated that enforcement practices were directly impacting workforce participation.
Despite a partial rebound, the damage was lasting. Between May and September, California's private-sector employment remained 2.9% below pre-raid levels, according to Flores's latest assessment. The economic shock was not confined to California. A similar pattern emerged in Washington, DC, in August. When federal forces were deployed for crime control, the district's private-sector employment fell by 3.3%. It rebounded modestly by 0.5% in September after the federal oversight ended.
Unequal Impact on the Workforce
The burden of this economic contraction was not shared equally. The analysis revealed a deeply unequal fallout:
- Noncitizen women faced the steepest losses, with their reported employment plummeting by 8.6%. In practical terms, this meant roughly one in twelve noncitizen women vanished from payrolls after raids escalated in Los Angeles in early June.
- While citizens accounted for the largest numerical decline (around 415,000 workers between May and July), noncitizens were hit far harder proportionally. Their employment fell by 12.3% in that period, compared to a 3.3% drop among citizens.
A National Shift and the Path Forward
Economists interpret these local disruptions as signs of a larger national shift. For the first time in over fifty years, the US immigrant workforce is shrinking. Pew Research Center data shows the immigrant population fell from 53.3 million in January 2025 to 51.9 million by June—a decline of over one million people. Deportations are one factor, but researchers also cite fewer people migrating to the US, long-term residents leaving voluntarily, and many staying indoors to avoid risk.
Professor Flores argues that economic recovery is inextricably linked to policy reform. He advocates for measures like emergency cash assistance and expanded access to unemployment insurance—benefits currently denied to undocumented immigrants who nonetheless pay payroll taxes. Such interventions, he contends, would alleviate hardship and stabilise local economies by restoring consumer spending power in affected communities.
The spreadsheets reviewed each month narrate a quiet crisis. It unfolds not in headlines, but through empty worksites, missing paycheques, and an economy grappling with the consequences of a vital workforce retreating into the shadows.
