The landscape for Indian professionals and students aspiring to work in the United States is set for a fundamental transformation. The US government has finalised a significant overhaul of the H-1B visa selection process, moving away from a decades-old random lottery to a new system that prioritises salary and experience. This change, effective from the March 2026 registration cycle, alongside a separate $100,000 fee for certain petitions, marks a strategic shift in American immigration policy with profound implications for the world's largest pool of H-1B applicants: Indians.
From Random Chance to Wage-Based Weighting: The Core Change
The most critical alteration is the abandonment of the purely random draw. Until now, when the number of H-1B registrations exceeded the annual cap of 85,000 visas, every eligible application had an equal probability of selection, irrespective of the offered salary or the candidate's seniority. From February 27, 2026, US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) will implement a weighted lottery.
This new system will utilise the four wage levels established by the US Department of Labor, which are determined by occupation, job location, and required experience. Under the revised rules:
- Wage Level 1 (Entry-level): Receives 1 chance in the lottery.
- Wage Level 2: Receives 2 chances.
- Wage Level 3: Receives 3 chances.
- Wage Level 4 (Highest): Receives 4 chances.
As noted by Texas-based immigration attorney Chand Parvathaneni, the process remains a lottery but is no longer random. "It is weighted towards the wage level. Somebody who gets a higher wage has more chances and a higher probability of being selected," he explained. The rule was formalised through a federal rule-making process, including a public comment period, and not via an executive order.
Winners and Losers in the New H-1B Era
The clear beneficiaries of this policy shift are experienced professionals commanding higher salaries. The US government's rationale is that a higher wage serves as a proxy for higher skill and specialisation. "The general view is that somebody who is more experienced obviously has more skills and commands more salary. The government wants to give that person more preference," Parvathaneni stated.
For Indian applicants, who already dominate senior roles in IT, engineering, and consulting, this change does not disadvantage them as a nationality. Instead, it reallocates advantage within the applicant pool from junior to senior levels.
Conversely, the outlook for entry-level applicants, including fresh graduates and many international students on F-1 visas, has darkened considerably. Rajiv Khanna, a Virginia-based immigration attorney, highlighted the drastic reduction in chances for this group. He expressed particular concern for students burdened with substantial educational loans who banked on securing H-1B sponsorship after their studies.
"There are students here with hundreds of thousands of dollars in loans, anticipating that they'll be able to get a job. It appears very unlikely now," Khanna told The Indian Express. The impact may also be felt by startups and small businesses that rely on entry-level global talent, as the increased compliance costs at the registration stage could deter them from sponsoring visas for junior roles.
The $100,000 Fee and Strategic Advice for Indian Applicants
Separate from the lottery change is the $100,000 fee imposed this year for certain H-1B petitions filed for workers outside the US. It is crucial to note that students already in the US transitioning from an F-1 visa are exempt from this fee. Together, these policies create a complex scenario: while in-country students avoid the hefty fee, their lottery odds are lower, whereas experienced professionals abroad face the fee but enjoy better lottery chances.
For Indian students and professionals planning for the 2026 cycle, immigration experts advise a strategic recalibration. Parvathaneni emphasises a focus on compliance, accumulating relevant experience, and having a clear career trajectory. Khanna offers a more cautious note, urging students considering expensive US degrees to reassess the risk, as entry-level pathways have narrowed significantly.
"If you are coming purely for education, the US is still the best," Khanna said. "But if you are coming with the expectation of a career and a hospitable environment, this is not the time to assume things will work out." The combined effect of these measures is expected to reduce the overall number of H-1B filings, as employers weigh the costs against the diminished odds for entry-level positions, reshaping the profile of future H-1B holders in America.
