Iran Moves to Formalize Control Over Strait of Hormuz After Ceasefire with US
For decades, the United States and its allies invested billions in cyberattacks, assassinations of scientists, economy-crippling sanctions, and intense diplomacy to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions. However, after a brutal month-long war involving joint US-Israeli forces, Tehran may have acquired something more formidable than any atomic weapon from President Donald Trump: dominance over the Strait of Hormuz.
Ceasefire and Strategic Shift
On Wednesday, the US and Iran agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire, reopening this vital chokepoint for Gulf oil and exports. Trump announced he would "suspend bombing and attacks on Iran" if Tehran clears shipping lanes through Hormuz. In a Truth Social post, he justified the pause by stating US forces had "already met and exceeded all military objectives." This followed his earlier fiery threats to obliterate Iran "in one night," warnings that drew global condemnation from UN Secretary-General António Guterres to Pope Leo XIV.
How Iran Choked the Strait of Hormuz
Before the Iran-US conflict, approximately 138 ships traversed the Strait of Hormuz daily, transporting one-fifth of global oil and essential fertilizers for worldwide agriculture. As hostilities erupted, Iranian threats and attacks nearly halted all traffic through this narrow passage. March traffic plummeted below 100 ships. Initially, Trump attempted diplomatic efforts and backchannel dialogue to resolve the blockade. When these failed, he deployed an additional thousand troops to the Middle East and considered US Navy escorts for oil tankers.
His frustration became evident in a profanity-laden Truth Social post on Easter Sunday: "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F****** Strait, you crazy b*******, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP." Despite this, Iran maintained the upper hand at this critical artery, utilizing cheap drones, sea mines, and its geographical advantages for asymmetric warfare.
'Charge for Safe Passage' Proposal
Reports indicate Iran is now seeking to formalize its control over the strait as part of a broader geopolitical strategy following weeks of conflict. In proposals linked to a potential long-term peace deal, Tehran aims to gain authority to charge transit fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Officials note these charges would not be fixed but could vary based on:
- The type of vessel
- The nature of its cargo
- Prevailing conditions
Iran is also developing a framework that might require ships to obtain permits or licenses before passage, potentially coordinated with regional mechanisms involving Oman, as reported by Reuters.
Despite the ceasefire, shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz has remained limited post-announcement. Analysts caution that vessels and insurers are unlikely to resume normal traffic until they observe sustained safety signals, according to CNN. Charlie Brown, senior advisor at Dark Fleet Tracking and a former US Navy officer, stated: "The ceasefire is a necessary first step, but it does not mean commercial shipping immediately normalises through the international traffic lanes in the Strait."
Shipowners await guidance from naval security channels, flag states, and marine war-risk insurers before returning vessels to the strait. Since the conflict's onset, Iran has attacked at least 19 vessels near the strait, severely disrupting crude supplies to global markets. Iran’s foreign minister has asserted that "safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces."
Joint Protocol with Oman
Iran's deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabdi, revealed last week that Tehran is drafting a protocol with Oman to mandate permits and licenses for ships traversing the strait, claiming this move aims to facilitate rather than restrict transit. Iran argues that funds collected from ships would support post-war reconstruction, as the conflict has devastated the country's defense, administrative, and civilian infrastructure.
Oman confirmed talks with Iran on ensuring smooth transit but did not specify if agreements were reached. The proposed fee would vary depending on ship type, cargo, and other unspecified conditions. Iran's 10-point ceasefire proposal included a provision allowing both Tehran and Muscat to levy transit fees. However, Oman contradicted this demand, stating: "No tolls can be imposed for crossing Hormuz." Oman's transport minister emphasized the Sultanate's commitment to free and safe navigation, citing signed agreements guaranteeing no fees for ships crossing the Hormuz Strait.
The 34-kilometer strip of water between Iran and Oman has historically been considered an international waterway, with neither country imposing tolls. This narrow passage facilitates roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, making it a critical maritime chokepoint.
Potential Joint Venture with the US
Meanwhile, Trump indicated he is considering a "joint venture" with Iran to establish tolls in the Strait of Hormuz following the ceasefire deal. When asked by ABC News journalist Jonathan Karl if he approved of Iran charging tolls, Trump responded: "We're thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It's a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people." He added, "It's a beautiful thing."
The situation transcends a fragile ceasefire, representing a significant shift in control over one of the world’s most crucial maritime chokepoints. What began as an effort to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions has inadvertently strengthened Tehran’s strategic position, potentially reshaping global trade dynamics.
