In 1998, as President Bill Clinton faced impeachment and the film 'Titanic' dominated the Oscars, pollsters from Gallup and USA Today picked up their landline telephones. They called 1,055 American homes with a fascinating query: What did they believe the world would look like by the year 2025? Those answers, preserved by the Roper Center at Cornell University, provide a remarkable time capsule. Now, with 2025 in the rearview mirror, we can finally assess the accuracy of that public foresight—a blend of startling prescience, hopeful optimism, and deep-seated anxiety.
Predictions That Stood the Test of Time
Americans in the late 90s demonstrated surprising clarity on several major social shifts. A majority correctly believed the United States would elect a Black president by 2025, a prediction fulfilled by Barack Obama's historic presidency. Similarly, a large portion of the public anticipated that gay marriage would become both legal and widely accepted, which it did nationwide years ago.
Perhaps the most eerily accurate forecast came in the realm of public health. A significant 75% of respondents predicted the "emergence of a deadly new disease," a statement that carries profound weight after the global COVID-19 pandemic. The public was also realistic about the limits of progress, correctly doubting that routine space travel for citizens or contact with alien life would materialize by now.
Where Hope Outpaced Reality
Not all expectations from 1998 have come to pass. The poll revealed an optimism that, in some areas, missed the mark. About two-thirds of Americans thought the nation would have elected a female president by 2025, a milestone yet to be achieved. In healthcare, more than half of those surveyed expected cures for cancer and AIDS, and 61% believed people would routinely live to 100 years old—breakthroughs that remain elusive.
Technology predictions were a mixed bag. Over half foresaw the rise of remote work and the dominance of online shopping. While neither has completely replaced traditional offices or physical stores, both telecommuting and e-commerce have undeniably become central pillars of modern life, showing a partial, if not universal, correctness in public intuition.
A Darker Vision of Societal Change
Beyond specific events, the poll captured a palpable anxiety about the country's trajectory. A pessimistic tone colored views on inequality and personal liberty. 70% felt quality of life would improve for the wealthy, while most expected life to worsen for the poor. Concerns about eroding personal freedoms were high, with nearly 80% predicting less personal privacy and 57% anticipating diminished personal freedom.
People also forecasted higher crime rates, deteriorating environmental conditions, and a decline in moral values. A striking 71% believed it would be harder to raise children to be good people. Amid these fears, there were glimmers of hope: most respondents believed race relations would improve and that medical care, though likely less affordable, would become more available.
Then Versus Now: A Stark Shift in Mood
The methodology of polling has evolved since the landline era, but Gallup's continued tracking reveals a dramatic shift in national sentiment. In the autumn of 1998, approximately 60% of Americans expressed satisfaction with the nation's direction. Today, that figure has plummeted to a mere 24%.
The 1998 survey stands as a testament to the public's complex relationship with the future. It showcases a blend of realistic anticipation, hopeful aspiration, and profound worry. What is perhaps most striking today is not merely what Americans got right or wrong about 2025, but the stark contrast between their relative confidence in 1998 and the prevailing disillusionment of the present. The poll serves as both a report card on collective foresight and a mirror reflecting our changing anxieties across decades.
