Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is campaigning for re-election in Tuesday's national elections, presenting himself as a leader who has successfully navigated the complex geopolitical landscape to maintain Iraq's stability while seeking greater independence from both the United States and Iran.
A Leader Forged by Conflict
Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, now 55 years old, carries a personal history that deeply informs his political perspective. At just ten years old, he witnessed his father's execution by Saddam Hussein's regime due to his membership in an Iran-aligned political party. This traumatic experience shaped his worldview and political allegiances.
Despite owing his premiership to Iran-aligned Shia Muslim political parties that dominate Iraq's democracy, Sudani still acknowledges the positive impact of the 2003 U.S. intervention that toppled Hussein's brutal regime. This dual appreciation positions him uniquely in Iraq's political landscape as he attempts to balance relationships with both powerful patrons.
Three Years of Strategic Accomplishments
During his three-year tenure, Prime Minister Sudani has achieved several significant political milestones that form the cornerstone of his re-election campaign:
He successfully negotiated the final withdrawal of U.S. combat troops from Iraq last year, a move that resonated with many Iraqis who have long sought greater sovereignty.
He maintained Iraq's neutrality during the recent Israel-Iran war, keeping the country out of a regional conflict that could have destabilized his nation's fragile peace.
He leveraged high oil prices from early in his term to fund a massive construction boom that has significantly boosted employment and helped control the cycle of civil unrest that has plagued Iraq for decades.
"There is now security, stability and societal harmony," Sudani declared in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, highlighting the dramatic transformation from a country that served as an arena for external conflicts and internal divisions for over two decades.
The Delicate Balance of Power
Sudani's political strategy involves walking a tightrope between two powerful nations with competing interests in Iraq. Regarding Iran, he stated, "It is a neighboring country with which we have friendly ties. But certainly, this friendship will not be at the expense of our national decisions and the interests of Iraq and Iraqis."
With the United States, Sudani envisions a transformed relationship: "We want the nature of the relationship not to be a security one, but rather an economic and commercial one that benefits both countries." He emphasized his commitment to "a relationship based on mutual respect, respect for Iraqi sovereignty and shared interests."
Challenges and Political Realities
Political analysts remain skeptical about Sudani's ability to achieve genuine independence from both powers. Washington continues to be Baghdad's closest security partner and primary weapons supplier. The Trump administration maintains significant leverage over Iraq through potential financial sanctions related to armed militia groups aligned with Iran.
Iran's influence remains deeply entrenched through Tehran-backed militias that form the backbone of its presence in Iraq. The dominant political force remains Nouri al-Maliki, an Iran-aligned politician who served as Iraq's first elected prime minister in 2006.
"As long as Iran-backed armed groups retain their operational autonomy, no government can genuinely break away from Iran's influence," cautioned Tamer Badawi, an associate fellow with RUSI, a respected UK defense think tank.
The Militia Question
One of Sudani's most significant challenges has been managing the powerful militias that operate within Iraq's borders. He claims these groups are now "an official security institution" subject to government orders, stating "It is a security apparatus that executes orders. It has no involvement in any political stance."
The militias notably remained on the sidelines during Iran's 12-day war with Israel, which Sudani cites as evidence of his government's control. "We protected our country from being dragged into this war," he asserted. "Today, Iraq is not an arena for conflict, but rather a hub for dialogue."
However, Iraqi analysts question the extent of Sudani's actual control over these groups. "Those armed groups retain political and economic influence, and the state has yet to demonstrate full capacity or will to enforce broad disarmament," observed Hayder Al-Shakeri, a research fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.
Election Dynamics and Future Prospects
Tuesday's election represents just the beginning of a complex political process in Iraq. The election itself involves dozens of political parties and will initiate intense backroom negotiations over who will secure the premiership, which traditionally goes to a member of a Shia political party under Iraq's power-sharing system.
Sudani faces particular challenges from within his own political circles. Although he has launched his own political party, it remains part of Maliki's larger umbrella political group, and political analysts report that Maliki is actively working to undermine him.
"Iran will never let a powerful leader rise in Iraq," explained Lawk Ghafuri, an Iraqi political analyst. "Changing the PM every four years is a must for Tehran to make sure no individual will have a fan base or become popular."
Despite these challenges, Sudani remains optimistic about his prospects, stating "It is a large national alliance. We have a great opportunity by virtue of what we have achieved." His ability to translate his accomplishments into parliamentary support will determine whether he can continue his delicate balancing act between Washington and Tehran while pursuing greater Iraqi sovereignty.
