The ongoing conflict in West Asia has severely impacted the global aviation sector, leading to a 3.4% decline in worldwide air passenger demand in April. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), soaring fuel prices, airspace disruptions, and security concerns have created major operational challenges for airlines.
Sharp Decline in Middle East Carrier Demand
IATA data released on Friday reveals that the impact of the Middle East war was particularly acute for carriers in the region, with passenger demand plunging by 46.6% year-on-year in April. This steep decline dragged down the global average significantly.
"The 46.6% fall in demand for carriers in the Middle East due to war in the region was so acute that it dragged overall demand down -3.4%. The situation for air transport remains highly volatile. The cost of jet fuel more than doubled in April, which is pushing airfares up," said Willie Walsh, IATA Director General.
He added that forward booking and schedule data suggest airlines are reducing flight offerings in the coming months as they attempt to balance weaker passenger demand and rising fuel costs.
Global Passenger Traffic Trends
Total global passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), declined 3.4% in April compared to the same month last year. Total capacity also fell by 2.9%. However, excluding the Middle East, global passenger demand would have grown by 1.9%. International passenger demand dropped 5.3% globally, while domestic demand remained largely flat.
The Middle East recorded the steepest decline among all regions, with passenger demand collapsing by 46.6% and load factors dropping sharply to 70.6%. IATA noted that the aviation market in the region remains under pressure due to the ongoing Iran conflict, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, and continued uncertainty over regional security conditions.
While an uneasy ceasefire helped slow the pace of decline slightly compared to March, airlines operating through the Gulf continue to face significant operational disruptions and falling passenger confidence.
Jet Fuel Prices Soar Amid Conflict
The conflict has also severely affected airline operating costs worldwide, particularly due to rising aviation fuel prices. IATA stated that jet fuel prices more than doubled during April as geopolitical tensions disrupted global energy markets and threatened shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil transit chokepoints.
Industry experts say airlines are increasingly forced to reroute flights to avoid conflict zones and restricted airspace, resulting in longer flying times and higher operational expenses. The sharp increase in costs is expected to push airfares higher globally in the coming months.
Air India Cuts Domestic and International Flights
Air India announced temporary reductions in both domestic and international operations due to sustained high fuel prices and operational pressures linked to the West Asia crisis. The airline rationalised services on select domestic routes between June and August 2026 after already reducing international operations by around 27%.
Air India currently operates around 4,400 weekly flights, including nearly 3,600 domestic services and around 800 international flights. The latest adjustments are expected to affect nearly 20-22% of domestic operations during the June-August period.
"In continuation of our previously announced adjustments to select international services between June and August 2026, we have temporarily rationalised operations on certain domestic routes during the same period, with a reduction in frequencies on select routes," Air India said in a statement.
The airline cited the sustained impact of high fuel prices, rerouting costs, and operational uncertainty linked to tensions in West Asia as reasons for the changes. Air India suspended or reduced services across multiple international routes connecting Indian cities to North America, Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia, including flights to Chicago, San Francisco, Toronto, Paris, Singapore, Bangkok, and Melbourne. Despite the cuts, the carrier continues to operate more than 1,200 international flights every month across five continents.
Asia-Pacific Remains Relatively Resilient
Despite the global slowdown, airlines in the Asia-Pacific region continued to record moderate growth. According to IATA, Asia-Pacific carriers reported a 3% increase in international passenger demand in April. European carriers also reported marginal growth, helped partly by increased direct traffic between Europe and Asia as airlines shifted away from routes transiting through the Middle East. However, North American carriers reported almost no growth in passenger demand during the period.
Domestic passenger traffic in India declined 2.9% year-on-year in April, reflecting weakening travel demand and rising airfares. Industry analysts warned that unless tensions in West Asia ease significantly, airlines globally may continue facing pressure from elevated fuel prices, restricted airspace, and weakening passenger demand over the coming months.
