Six months after a fierce 12-day war, Israeli officials are issuing stark warnings that Tehran's efforts to reconstruct its ballistic-missile arsenal could trigger fresh military action. This development complicates American attempts to stabilise the volatile Middle East region.
Netanyahu's Red Line: A New War Over Missiles?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, addressing a graduation ceremony for air force pilots on Wednesday, stated that Israel is closely monitoring the rearmament efforts of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. He emphasised that the country would act decisively if required. "We are not looking for confrontations, but our eyes are open to any possible danger," Netanyahu declared.
His comments align with statements from Israel's defence minister and air force chief at the same event, who vowed to preempt emerging threats. These warnings come as Netanyahu prepares for a year-end meeting with US President Trump. An Israeli official confirmed that Iran's progress on ballistic missiles and the potential for further military strikes will be a key agenda item during their discussions.
A Shift in Israeli Doctrine and US Concerns
Attacking Iran solely over its conventional missile program would mark a significant escalation of Israel's red lines. The June war primarily targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, deemed an existential threat. However, Israel also aimed to destroy Tehran's long-range conventional weapons and subsequently warned that rebuilding either program would invite retaliation.
Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch for Israeli military intelligence, noted this shift. "Israel never went to war over a conventional buildup. It would be a first," he said, adding that this new stance, part of Israel's post-October 2023 security doctrine, makes another conflict within the year more likely.
The Trump administration's stance remains a critical factor. While President Trump has claimed US raids crippled Iran's nuclear program, officials have privately expressed frustration with Israel's readiness to use force. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly reiterated Trump's warning on nuclear weapons but did not specifically address missiles. Any Israeli strike would likely require at least tacit US approval, as Israel would need American support to counter potential Iranian missile retaliation.
Iran's Rebuilding Efforts and Regional Calculations
Satellite imagery analysed by Sam Lair of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies shows Iran is actively reconstructing missile production sites damaged in previous Israeli strikes. While not yet at full capacity, the activity suggests Iran is likely already producing new missiles. "They could produce hundreds of missiles a month" if facilities are fully restored, Lair assessed.
For Iran, which lacks a potent air force, missiles are a cornerstone of defence, especially after its nuclear program and regional proxies were weakened by recent conflicts. Analysts like Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group believe Iran is prioritising missile capability to raise the cost of future Israeli attacks.
Despite Israeli concerns about a potential first strike from Iran, analysts consider it improbable. The regime is grappling with internal crises, including a severe water shortage and a plummeting currency, and remains wary of provoking the US directly.
In Israel, the political and security discourse is dominated by this threat. Energy Minister Eli Cohen stated the barrier to attack Iran was broken, sending a clear message. Visiting US Senator Lindsey Graham also advocated for action, stating, "The next attack, if there is a next attack, will be focused on their ballistic missile capability."
As the region watches, the coming months will test whether diplomacy can prevail or if the rebuilding of missile factories will indeed become the casus belli for another devastating war.
