The World Economic Forum has unveiled its Global Risks Report 2026, providing a comprehensive analysis of the most pressing threats expected to shape the world in the immediate future, short term, and long term. Released in January 2026, this report comes at a time of unprecedented global uncertainty, offering insights into risks for 2026, the next two years (2028), and the decade ahead (2036).
Pessimistic Global Outlook According to Survey
Based on responses from the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), the outlook for both the short- and long-term global scenarios is notably negative. The report, published on January 14, 2026, indicates that 50% of respondents anticipate a turbulent or stormy outlook over the next two years, with this figure deteriorating to 57% over the next ten years. Additionally, 40% and 32% view the global outlook as unsettled for the two- and ten-year time frames, respectively, while only 1% expect a calm outlook across each horizon.
Definition and Ranking of Global Risks
The report defines a "global risk" as the possibility of an event or condition that could negatively impact a significant proportion of global GDP, population, or natural resources. Risks are ranked by their immediate severity, as well as over the short term (two years) and long term (ten years), providing a multi-faceted view of emerging threats.
Key Findings from the Global Risks Report 2026
One of the most striking findings is the sharp rise in geoeconomic confrontation. This risk has moved up two positions in the immediate risk list and eight positions in the short term, positioning it as one of the most severe threats by 2028. As competition among nations intensifies, state-based armed conflict ranks second among immediate threats, though it drops to fifth in the two-year outlook.
Economic and Environmental Concerns
Economic risks have surged collectively, driven by high national debt levels and volatile markets. Economic downturns remain in the top 10 at the start of 2026, climbing eight spots to rank 11th in the short-term outlook and 19th over the next decade. On the environmental front, risks are deprioritized in the two-year timeframe but remain significant over a decade, with extreme weather events leading the long-term list.
Technological Threats on the Rise
Technological threats are increasingly prominent, with misinformation and disinformation ranked second in the short term and fourth in the long term. Potential adverse outcomes from artificial intelligence have jumped dramatically from 30th to fifth in the ten-year outlook, highlighting growing concerns over AI's impact.
Top 10 Risks for 2026, 2028, and 2036
The report outlines the top ten risks by severity for different time frames, categorized into geopolitical, environmental, technological, societal, and economic domains.
Immediate Risks (2026)
- Geoeconomic confrontation (Geopolitical, 18% share)
- State-based armed conflict (Geopolitical, 14% share)
- Extreme weather events (Environmental, 8% share)
- Societal polarization (Societal, 7% share)
- Misinformation and disinformation (Technological, 7% share)
- Economic downturn (Economic, 5% share)
- Erosion of human rights and/or civic freedoms (Societal, 4% share)
- Adverse outcomes of AI technologies (Technological, 4% share)
- Cyber insecurity (Technological, 3% share)
- Inequality (Societal, 3% share)
Short-Term Risks (2026-2028)
- Geoeconomic confrontation (Geopolitical)
- Misinformation and disinformation (Technological)
- Societal polarization (Societal)
- Extreme weather events (Environmental)
- State-based armed conflict (Geopolitical)
- Cyber insecurity (Technological)
- Inequality (Societal)
- Erosion of human rights and/or civic freedoms (Societal)
- Pollution (Environmental)
- Involuntary migration or displacement (Societal)
Long-Term Risks (2026-2036)
- Extreme weather events (Environmental)
- Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (Environmental)
- Critical change to Earth systems (Environmental)
- Misinformation and disinformation (Technological)
- Adverse outcomes of AI technologies (Technological)
- Natural resource shortages (Environmental)
- Inequality (Societal)
- Cyber insecurity (Technological)
- Societal polarization (Societal)
- Pollution (Environmental)
The Global Risks Report 2026 serves as a crucial tool for policymakers, businesses, and individuals to understand and mitigate the evolving threats facing our world. With a focus on interconnected risks, it underscores the need for collaborative efforts to address these challenges in the years to come.
