Hyderabad: Telangana, celebrated as one of India's top five paddy producers, now faces a daunting challenge as its agricultural triumphs clash with an escalating water emergency. A comprehensive forward-looking analysis has sounded the alarm, revealing that approximately 65% of the state's groundwater resources are already in use, perilously nearing the critical threshold of 70%. Should current farming methods persist, groundwater levels could plummet by a staggering 133% by the year 2047.
Imminent 'Zero Day' Water Scenario
More alarmingly, the study cautions that Telangana might confront a 'zero day' water situation as early as 2034. This critical point occurs when a region's municipal water supply is largely exhausted, forcing the shutdown of regular tap water to homes and businesses. The analysis indicates that the current baseline groundwater level of 7.72 metres below ground level (MGBL) could sharply decline to 13 MGBL by 2034, representing a 68% drop. If left unchecked, it may sink further to 18 MGBL by 2047, amounting to a devastating 133% fall.
Study Findings and Soil Health Concerns
These critical findings are part of a study titled 'Telangana agriculture: Livelihood scenarios–The strategic choice scenarios across three horizons 2024-2034 and 2047.' It was presented at the Telangana Agriculture Futures workshops, organized by the Telangana Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Commission (Rythu Commission), Centre for Sustainable Agriculture (CSA), Deccan Development Society (DDS), and University of Hyderabad.
Compounding the water crisis is a sharp decline in soil health. Soil organic carbon, a vital indicator of fertility and moisture retention, stands at a mere 0.4%, far below the healthy range of 1.5% to 3%, as revealed by the study.
Dual Stress on Agricultural Livelihoods
Experts emphasize that this dual stress—depleting water resources and degrading soil quality—could fundamentally undermine agricultural livelihoods unless corrective action begins immediately. In response, they have proposed a regenerative agriculture transformation (RAT) model designed to restore groundwater and enhance soil resilience. This model focuses on improving soil health, boosting biodiversity, and developing methods to store more groundwater effectively.
Policy 'Win or Lose' Moment
GV Ramanjaneyulu, CSA director and a member of the Rythu Commission, warns that the state is approaching a critical policy 'win or lose' moment. Beyond this point, he cautions, the damage could become irreversible. He further alerts that water utilization may reach 85% by 2034, leading to a 45% failure rate of borewells, making additional drilling both economically and ecologically unviable. This scenario would mark a significant ecological tipping point.
Root Causes: Paddy Expansion and Groundwater Extraction
The analysis identifies the rapid expansion of paddy cultivation after 2014 as the central driver of the crisis. Increased irrigation has fueled intensive paddy cropping, accelerating groundwater extraction. This creates a vicious cycle: farmers drill deeper borewells at higher costs, while declining soil organic carbon further escalates cultivation expenses. Collectively, these pressures could eventually drive up the minimum support price for paddy, straining public finances.
Telangana's rapid agricultural expansion has transformed it into one of India's leading rice bowls, particularly during the yasangi (rabi) season. The state consistently ranks at or near the top in recent years (2023-24 and 2024-25), producing over 160 lakh metric tonnes, driven by expanded irrigation and sustained government support.
Well Density and Aquifer Challenges
Divya Veluguri, executive director of DDS, highlights the dramatic increase in well density across the state's hard rock regions. From about five wells per square kilometre in 1985-86, the number has surged to nearly 27 wells per square kilometre by 2021-22. With 85% of Telangana dependent on hard rock aquifers—underground layers of permeable rock, sand, gravel, or silt that store and transmit groundwater—the potential for natural groundwater recharge is limited.
She notes that irrigated areas have expanded by 150% since 2014, while more than 20% of groundwater reserves are now classified as 'unsafe' for extraction.
Cautious Optimism with Immediate Action
Despite these alarming trends, the study offers a note of cautious optimism. If corrective measures under the RAT model are implemented immediately, groundwater trends could be reversed by 2047. By enhancing rainwater infiltration to recharge aquifers through improved soil health, wells could become viable again. Under this proactive approach, groundwater levels could improve by 16%, rising from 7.72 to 6.5 MGBL, with only a marginal dip to 7.5 MGBL projected by 2030, according to the study.
The urgency for Telangana is clear: embracing sustainable agricultural practices is not just an option but a necessity to secure its farming future and avert an impending water catastrophe.
