The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a probabilistic weather outlook indicating that the first month of 2026 is set to bring a distinct chill across Maharashtra. Unlike typical January patterns where only nights turn cold, the forecast suggests both daytime and nighttime temperatures are likely to dip below normal across the state's interior regions.
Widespread Below-Normal Temperatures Expected
Released on Thursday, the IMD's detailed outlook paints a cool picture for January 2026. The minimum temperature forecast shows a high probability of below-normal night temperatures over large swathes of central and interior Maharashtra. This includes the regions of Vidarbha, Marathwada, and adjoining parts of Madhya Maharashtra.
According to the IMD's tercile categories map, these areas fall largely in the light to moderate "blue zone," which indicates a 45-55% probability of nights being colder than the long-term climatological average. Coastal Konkan, however, presents a mixed signal, with near-normal to slightly above-normal minimum temperatures anticipated along parts of the coastline.
Daytime Warmth to Remain Subdued
In a significant shift from the usual winter pattern, maximum daytime temperatures are also projected to stay below normal through much of January. The state predominantly falls within the below-normal probability zone for daytime heat.
The maximum temperature probability map mirrors the nighttime forecast, with most of Maharashtra shaded in light to moderate blue. This, again, points to a 45-55% chance of daytime temperatures being below average. "This signal is prominent across Vidarbha, Marathwada and large parts of Madhya Maharashtra, suggesting that daytime warming will remain subdued," explained an IMD official. Parts of interior south Maharashtra show a similar tendency, while Konkan displays a mixed signal.
"Overall, the outlook indicates that Jan will not just be about cold nights, but will also see cooler-than-usual days across interior Maharashtra," the official summarized.
Cold Wave Anomaly and 2025 Climate Recap
The IMD's cold wave duration anomaly map for the forecast period shows a notable, though mixed, signal for the state. Parts of interior Maharashtra, particularly central and south-eastern regions, show positive anomalies of one to three days. This suggests the possibility of above-normal cold wave days in these specific pockets during the month. Meanwhile, some areas in western and northern Maharashtra indicated near-normal or marginally negative anomalies, ruling out widespread or prolonged cold wave conditions.
Alongside the January 2026 forecast, the IMD released its Statement on the Climate of India during 2025, which underscored the severe impact of weather-related disasters last year. The report revealed that extreme rainfall events, including floods, cloudbursts, and landslides, claimed over 1,370 lives across the country in 2025.
Maharashtra bore the highest brunt with over 210 deaths, followed by Himachal Pradesh with more than 160 fatalities. Jammu and Kashmir reported over 155 deaths, with major incidents including 63 killed in a massive cloudburst and flash floods in Kishtwar on August 14, and 32 deaths in a landslide in Reasi on August 27.
