US-Iran Tensions: Veteran Predicts Short War, Diplomatic Pivot
As tensions between the United States, Iran, and Israel intensify following sustained strikes and counterstrikes, a senior Indian Army veteran offers a strategic assessment, suggesting Washington may avoid a prolonged military engagement and seek an exit within days.
Peak Intensity and Volatile Window Ahead
Maj Gen Rajan Kochhar, VSM (Retd), a veteran with nearly 37 years of command and strategic logistics experience in the Army Ordnance Corps, warns that the conflict is entering a phase of peak intensity before diplomatic recalibration sets in. He emphasizes that the immediate future will be highly volatile.
The next 24 hours are expected to be even more intense for both the US and Iran. As American forces continue to weaken Iran's military and missile capabilities, Iran is likely to retaliate aggressively, with each day diminishing its arsenal. Gulf nations, identified as soft targets, will continue to bear the brunt of these attacks.
According to Maj Gen Kochhar, Iran has little incentive to scale down its retaliation in the short term because sustained American strikes are eroding its operational strength daily.
US Strategy: Limited War and Negotiated Exit
At the same time, he argues that Washington may not be interested in a drawn-out conflict. Trump may not like to prolong this war as a regime change cannot happen through missiles and drones. The USA is likely to exit after a few days with a negotiated settlement focused on the nuclear issue.
He suggests the broader US objective is to weaken Iran militarily before pivoting towards diplomacy. Having sufficiently degraded the war-waging potential of Iran, attempts to influence the population in Iran for change of leadership will continue. This shift will also impact Gulf countries, which may need to invest more in building stronger militaries, particularly air defence systems.
US influence on these Gulf nations is likely to diminish, while Iran will face increased isolation in the region due to its attacks on neighbours, which Maj Gen Kochhar describes as committing harakari.
Regime Change: A Gradual Process
Maj Gen Kochhar questions whether military strikes alone can drive political change in Iran, linking the conflict to parallel developments in Pakistan and Afghanistan as cases of short wars, long consequences.
He believes Washington will seek to limit the conflict duration to avoid severe economic consequences for global markets, oil flows, and allied Gulf economies. After degrading Iran's missile and military infrastructure over the coming week, Washington may shift towards negotiations centred on curbing Tehran's nuclear programme.
Any attempt at political transformation within Iran would likely be gradual and driven by internal factors rather than immediate military action. A regime change can only happen if the people of Iran want it to happen. So far, this is not occurring, and it is likely to be a drawn-out process.
Strategic Connections and Broader Implications
He points out that the US-Iran war and conflicts in Pakistan and Afghanistan are strategically connected. In an extended conflict with Iran, the United States might use air bases in Pakistan, with their security paramount to prevent interference from Afghanistan.
Recent developments, such as Pakistan Air Force strikes in Afghanistan, indicate this evolving equation. This war with Afghanistan is not going to last for a very long time because Pakistan is not going to get into a conventional war considering the terrain. It will be restricted to airstrikes, while Afghanistan may engage in asymmetric warfare, including suicide attacks and sniper actions.
Short War, Long-Term Consequences
In his view, while the next few days could witness maximum military intensity, the broader conflict may not extend much beyond a short window. What follows could instead be a prolonged phase of negotiations, strategic recalibration in the Gulf, and internal political pressure within Iran over the coming years.
Donald Trump has inflicted enough damage on Iran to exit from this war maybe after a week or so. In this ensuing week, he is likely to inflict maximum damage on Iran's war-waging potential, as a prolonged conflict would devastate the world economy and allied Gulf economies.
Once Iran's capacity is sufficiently degraded, negotiations could follow, with Iran possibly agreeing to cut down its nuclear program. Any deeper political shift inside Iran would take years rather than months, involving potential civil unrest and gradual regime change.
