India is likely to experience moderate to strong El Nino conditions during the monsoon season, according to the latest weather forecasts. The El Nino phenomenon, characterized by warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically leads to below-normal rainfall in India.
Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole
Neutral conditions in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a key climate pattern that influences rainfall in the region, are expected to persist through the end of the monsoon season. The IOD measures the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean.
Impact on Monsoon
The combination of El Nino and neutral IOD could result in uneven rainfall distribution across the country. Some regions may experience deficits, while others could see excess rainfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already forecast below-normal monsoon rainfall for the season.
El Nino events have historically been associated with droughts in India, such as in 2009 and 2015. However, the intensity of the impact depends on other factors like the IOD and local atmospheric conditions.
Farmers are advised to stay updated with weather advisories and plan agricultural activities accordingly. The government has also prepared contingency plans for potential dry spells.
This article was last updated on 12 June 2026, 11:40 IST.
